Afternoon report: Corn captures modest gains Tuesday, with soybeans narrowly mixed.
Grain prices were mixed but mostly higher on Tuesday, anchored by solid gains for wheat after USDA unexpectedly docked quality ratings three points lower yesterday afternoon. As a result, Chicago futures shot up 2%, with Kansas City contracts up more than 1% and Minneapolis contracts rising almost 0.75% higher. Corn prices benefited from some of that spillover strength, firming 0.5% by the close. Soybeans were narrowly mixed as traders searched for clearer supply and demand clues.
Rain will be spotty across the central U.S. between Wednesday and Saturday, with the Northern and Central Plains and Missouri likely to see the largest totals, per the latest 72-hour cumulative precipitation map from NOAA. The agency’s 8-to-14-day outlook predicts seasonally wet weather for much of the Midwest and Plains between May 3 and May 9, with cooler-than-normal conditions probable for the upper Midwest and Great Lakes region.
On Wall St., a selloff pushed the Dow 541 points lower in afternoon trading to 33,508 over general fears of an economic slowdown. Energy prices made significant inroads, with crude oil up more than 3% to $101 per barrel as Russia struggles to draw down its inventories and find buyers. Gasoline also moved 3% higher, with diesel up more than 4%. The U.S. Dollar firmed moderately.
On Monday, commodity funds were net buyers of corn (+6,500) contracts but were net sellers of soybeans (-9,000), soymeal (-4,000), soyoil (-2,500) and CBOT wheat (-4,000).
NOTE: CME announced Monday afternoon that it will change daily price limits for several key commodities, effective May 2. That includes:
Corn = 50 cents (up from 35 cents)
Soybeans = 115 cents (up from 90 cents)
CBOT and KC wheat = 70 cents (down from 85 cents)
Corn
Corn prices made moderate inroads on some technical buying largely spurred by spillover strength from wheat, with a slower-than-usual start to the planting season also lending some support today. May futures added 3.5 cents to $8.0375, with July futures up 4.25 cents to $8.0225.
Corn basis bids were steady to firm across the central U.S. on Wednesday after rising 3 to 6 cents higher at three Midwestern locations today.
Corn plantings are now at 7% through April 24, versus 4% a week ago. Analysts expected to see more momentum, with an average trade guess of 9%. And planting progress is well below 2021’s pace of 16% and the prior five-year average of 15%. And 2% of this year’s crop is now emerged, primarily in Texas and North Carolina. That puts 2022 below 2021’s pace of 3% and the prior five-year average of 3%.
If timing gets tight this spring, what goes in the ground first – corn or soybeans? That was the latest question from Farm Progress PANEL Almost half (49%) of respondents said corn will be planted first, with 30% saying soybeans will take priority. The remaining 21% said they still aren’t sure at this point. Click here to learn more and find out how to participate in future PANEL questions.
European Union corn imports during the 2021/22 marketing year have reached 516.5 million bushels through April 24, which is tracking 3.5% above last year’s pace so far, according to the latest data from the European Commission.
South Africa, the continent’s top corn producer, could see its 2021/22 production to fall 9.8% to 579.6 million bushels, according to its Crop Estimates Committee. A little over half of that total is white corn (human consumption), with the remaining production in yellow corn (animal feed).
Preliminary volume estimates were for 318,161 contracts, falling short of Monday’s final count of 357,874.
Soybeans
Soybean prices await fresh market signals, moving through a somewhat choppy session with little to show for it on Tuesday. May futures inched 1.75 cents higher to $17.0525, while July futures dropped 4.25 cents to $16.71. The rest of the soy complex was mixed today. Soymeal futures slumped more than 1.5% lower, while soyoil prices jumped more than 2.75% higher.
Soybean basis bids were steady to firm after jumping 13 cents higher at an Ohio elevator and improving 2 cents at two interior river terminals on Tuesday.
Private exporters announced two more large soybean sales to USDA on Tuesday. The first was for 4.9 million bushels for delivery to China during the 2022/23 marketing year, which begins September 1. The second was for 4.9 million bushels to unknown destinations. Of that total, 59% is for delivery during the current marketing year, with the remainder for delivery in 2022/23.
Soybean plantings are progressing slower than normal, with 3% completion through Sunday, moving ahead of last week’s 1% and matching analyst expectations. Compare that to 2021’s pace of 7% and the prior five-year average of 5%. USDA is not providing emergence estimates yet.
European Union soybean imports during the 2021/22 marketing year reached 421.5 million bushels through April 24, which is a year-over-year decrease of 5.6%. EU soymeal imports are also down from year-ago results, with 13.32 million metric tons over the same period.
Brazil’s Anec is now estimating the country will export 444.2 million bushels of soybeans in April, which is up slightly from its last forecast a week earlier. Anec also estimates Brazil will export 31.2 million bushels of corn and 5.7 million bushels of wheat this month.
Preliminary volume estimates were for 190,934 contracts, sliding slightly below Monday’s final count of 205,998.
Wheat
Wheat prices firmed today on worse-than-expected U.S. quality ratings and ongoing concerns about Ukraine’s ability to harvest and export its crops in the middle of the Russian invasion. May Chicago SRW futures climbed 22 cents to $10.84, May Kansas City HRW futures rose 13.5 cents to $11.5875, and May MGEX spring wheat futures added 8 cents to $11.8475.
Winter wheat quality ratings took a pounding this past week, with USDA lowering them another three points despite analysts expecting them to hold steady. Through Sunday, only 27% of the crop is now rated in good-to-excellent condition, with another 34% rate fair (up a point from last week) and the remaining 39% rated poor or very poor (up two points from last week). Physiologically, 11% of the crop is headed, up from 7% a week ago.
Spring wheat planting progress reached 13%, which is up from 8% a week ago and one point higher than analyst estimates. That’s far below 2021’s pace of 27% but just modestly behind the prior five-year average of 15%.
European Union soft wheat exports during the 2021/22 marketing year reached 794 million bushels through April 24, which is a year-over-year decline of 3.6%. EU barley exports are also slightly below last year’s pace, with 292.6 million bushels.
Our neighbor to the north could see an acreage shake-up this season, according to Statistics Canada. All-wheat acres are expected to improve more than 7% to 25.031 million acres. Oat acres could see an even bigger increase, with plantings rising 16.6% to 3.992 million acres. But canola plantings showed a larger-than-expected drop, losing 7% to 20.897 million acres.
Turkey issued two tenders to purchase 17.6 million bushels of milling wheat from optional origins that closes on Friday in an attempt to shore up domestic supplies following a severe drought last season. The grain is for delivery between May 17 and August 10.
Preliminary volume estimates were for 63,199 CBOT contracts, shifting 13% lower than Monday’s final count of 72,729.
Settlement Prices for Key Commodities
High
Low
Last
Change
Corn $/bushel
22-May
812.25
795
803.25
3.5
22-Jul
809.75
793.25
801.5
4.25
Soybeans
22-May
1726.25
1693.25
1705.25
1.75
22-Jul
1696.75
1661.75
1671.75
-4.25
Soymeal $/ton
22-Jul
450.9
436
437
-8.1
Soyoil cents/lb
22-Jul
82.84
79.82
82.44
2.12
Wheat $/bushel
22-May
1096
1066.75
1083.25
22
22-Jul
1107
1077
1095
22.5
KC Wheat
22-May
1173.25
1151.25
1157.75
13.5
22-Jul
1181.75
1156.5
1164.5
12.25
MPLS Wheat
22-May
1199.5
1170
1186.25
8
22-Jul
1199.75
1172.75
1188
7.75
Live Cattle cents/lb
22-Apr
140.275
139.25
139.75
0.65
Feeder Cattle cents/lb
22-May
161.875
160.4
160.575
-0.725
Lean Hogs cents/lb
22-May
114.825
110.6
111.3
-2.725
Crude Oil $/barrel
*Energy prices may not represent final settlements
22-May
102.78
97.06
101.4
2.86
Diesel
22-May
4.5714
4.1044
4.418
0.3271
Unleaded Gasoline $/gallon
22-May
3.3755
3.2033
3.3437
0.1039
Natural Gas
22-Jun
7.175
6.79
6.864
0.059
U.S. Dollar Index
22-Jun
102.35
101.535
102.31
0.541
Gold $/ounce
22-May
1908.5
1894
1900.9
7.7
Copper
22-Apr
4.4765
4.434
4.4345
-0.0145
Fertilizer Swaps
(as of 04/15)
DAP Tampa-index
1,240.0
0
DAP-New Orleans
1,052.7
0
Urea-New Orleans
854.3
-33.07
Urea-Middle East
995.0
-125
Urea-Black Sea
585.0
35
UAN (32%) New Orleans
694.5
-5.51
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