Afternoon report: Corn, soybeans and wheat all spill into the red on Thursday
Grain prices were mostly in the red on Thursday (soyoil was spared) after a round of technical selling and profit-taking today. Soybeans saw the biggest cuts after spilling 2% lower today. Corn prices were down 1.75%, with most wheat contracts trending 0.5% to 0.75% lower.
More rain in snow is possible in the central U.S. later this week. The eastern Corn Belt (Ohio and Pennsylvania, in particular) are likely to see the largest amounts between Friday and Monday, per the latest 72-hour cumulative precipitation map from NOAA. The agency’s 8-to-14-day outlook predicts a return for seasonally dry weather for the central U.S. between November 17 and November 23, with cooler-than-normal conditions likely for most of the country during this time.
On Wall St., the Dow surged 1,037 points higher in afternoon trading to 33,551 on hopeful data from the October consumer price index, which showed a 7.7% annual increase and sliding to the lowest levels since January. Energy futures were mixed. Crude oil firmed 1% to $86 per barrel. Gasoline was also up 1%, while diesel dropped almost 2.5%. The U.S. Dollar cooled considerably, falling 2% in afternoon trading.
On Wednesday, commodity funds were net buyers of soybeans (+5,000) and soyoil (+2,500) contracts but were net sellers of corn (-2,500), soymeal (-1,500) and CBOT wheat (-6,500).
NOTE: If you missed yesterday’s WASDE report from USDA, be sure to click here and catch up on the latest numbers, along with exclusive analysis from Farm Futures grain market analyst Jacqueline Holland.
Corn
Corn prices faded 1.75% lower after a round of technical selling and profit-taking on Thursday. A poor set of export sales data from USDA provided additional headwinds today, while traders largely shrugged off a flash sale to Mexico. December futures dropped 11.5 cents to $6.53, with March futures down 11.75 cents to $6.5875.
Corn basis bids were steady to mixed after trending 9 cents lower at an Ohio elevator while improving 10 cents at two other Midwestern locations on Thursday.
Private exporters announced to USDA the sale of 8.3 million bushels of corn for delivery to Mexico during the 2022/23 marketing year, which began September 1.
Corn export sales made it to 10.4 million bushels in the week through November 3, down from 14.7 million bushels from the prior week. That was also below the entire range of trade estimates, which came in between 11.8 million and 27.6 million bushels. Cumulative totals for the 2022/23 marketing year are trending moderately below last year’s pace so far, with 173.3 million bushels.
Corn export shipments were also relatively disappointing, with 10.2 million bushels. Mexico, Canada, Nicaragua, El Salvador and Honduras were the top five destinations.
South Korea purchased 5.3 million bushels of animal feed corn from optional origins in an international tender that closed earlier today. The grain is for shipment in late February. Another South Korean group purchased an additional 2.4 million bushels of animal feed corn, likely sourced from South America, in a private deal that closed today.
The threat of a railroad workers strike is still very real but is no longer as imminent after key parties agreed to extend a “cooling off period” that was originally set to expire on November 19. The National Carriers’ Conference Committee indicated that a new deadline of December 4 has been set. Click here to learn more about the unfolding situation.
Preliminary volume estimates were for 409,307 contracts, which was moderately below Wednesday’s final count of 473,319.
Soybeans
Soybean prices slumped 2% lower after a poor set of export sales data triggered a round of technical selling, with traders also still focusing on supply and demand data from USDA’s WASDE report that was released yesterday. November futures dropped 29.25 cents to $14.3050, with January futures down 29.75 cents to $14.2225.
Soybean basis bids were steady to mixed after tracking 5 cents higher at two interior river terminals while falling 16 cents lower at an Ohio elevator on Thursday.
Soybean export sales slid slightly lower week-over-week, moving to 29.2 million bushels. That was toward the lower end of trade estimates, which ranged between 22.0 million and 45.9 million bushels. Cumulative totals for the 2022/23 marketing year are tracking moderately below last year’s pace so far, with 464.5 million bushels.
Soybean export shipments were extremely healthy, moving to 101.1 million bushels. China, Mexico, Japan, the Netherlands and Spain were the top five destinations.
USDA’s latest Baseline Projections report, which was published earlier this week, suggests that both corn and soybean supplies will likely remain in a tight environment through the next 10 years, notes Farm Futures grain market analyst Jacqueline Holland. “Much like the boy that cried wolf, that means that a ‘tight supply environment’ may lose some of its price premiums in the years to come as domestic and international buyers readjust inventory management strategies to account for this persistent market dynamic,” she adds. Learn more in Holland’s latest E-corn-omics blog – click here for details.
Preliminary volume estimates were for 225,594 contracts, moving moderately ahead of Wednesday’s final count of 180,434.
Wheat
Wheat prices faced a moderate technical setback after a tepid round of export sales data from USDA this morning, with eyes also on Black Sea export trends. Most contracts were down between 0.5% and 0.75%. December Chicago SRW futures dropped 3.75 cents to $8.0275, December Kansas City HRW futures fell 6.75 cents to $9.2325. December MGEX spring wheat futures were also down 6.75 cents, closing at $9.3150.
Wheat export sales were down slightly from the prior week’s tally of 12.8 million bushels, falling to 11.8 million bushels. That was also on the lower end of trade guesses, which ranged between 9.2 million and 23.9 million bushels. Cumulative totals for the 2022/23 marketing year are running slightly ahead of last year’s pace, with 329.5 million bushels.
Wheat export shipments were also tepid, with just 5.6 million bushels. The Philippines, Japan, Mexico, Ecuador and Colombia were the top five destinations.
In Argentina, the Rosario grains exchange lowered its estimates for 2022/23 wheat production by nearly 14% to 433.6 million bushels as the country continues to struggle with widespread drought. If overly dry conditions prevail, “there may continue to be further cuts,” according to the exchange. If realized, this will be the lowest production since 2015/16.
Saudi Arabia issued an international tender to purchase 21.9 million bushels from optional origins that closes on November 14. The grain is comprised of a series of consignments that will be for arrival between mid-April and late June.
Tunisia issued an international tender to purchase 3.7 million bushels of soft wheat, 3.7 million bushels of durum wheat and 3.4 million bushels of animal feed barley from optional origins that closes on Friday. The grain is for shipment between early December and late January.
Preliminary volume estimates were for 150,118 CBOT contracts, shifting around 15% below Wednesday’s final count of 177,602.
Settlement Prices for Key Commodities
High
Low
Last
Change
Corn $/bushel
22-Dec
667.25
652.75
653.25
-11.5
23-Mar
673
658.75
659.5
-11.75
Soybeans
22-Nov
1465
1430.25
1430.5
-29.25
23-Jan
1459.25
1420.5
1423
-29.75
Soymeal $/ton
23-Jan
415.2
399.6
400.4
-11.4
Soyoil cents/lb
23-Jan
74.3
72.96
73.63
0.37
Wheat $/bushel
22-Dec
815.75
795.5
803.5
-3.75
23-Mar
837
817
825.75
-3.75
KC Wheat
22-Dec
937.75
917
925.25
-6.75
23-Mar
933.75
913.5
921.5
-7.25
MPLS Wheat
22-Dec
945.75
929
931.5
-6.75
23-Mar
957
941.25
944.5
-6.25
Live Cattle cents/lb
22-Oct
153.425
151.5
152.875
1.3
Feeder Cattle cents/lb
23-Jan
181.875
179.7
181.6
1.95
Lean Hogs cents/lb
23-Feb
89.225
88.3
88.85
-0.3
Crude Oil $/barrel
*Energy prices may not represent final settlements
22-Dec
87.35
84.7
86.36
0.53
Diesel
22-Dec
3.69
3.5598
3.5719
-0.0844
Unleaded Gasoline $/gallon
22-Dec
2.6105
2.5284
2.5611
0.0165
Natural Gas
23-Jan
6.637
6.143
6.608
0.383
U.S. Dollar Index
22-Dec
110.89
108.01
108.1
-2.36
Gold $/ounce
22-Dec
1758.3
1705.5
1740
29.9
Copper
22-Nov
3.808
3.794
3.794
0.0525
Fertilizer Swaps
(as of 11/04)
DAP Tampa-index
700.0
0
DAP-New Orleans
764.5
-26.46
Urea-New Orleans
583.1
-28.66
Urea-Middle East
587.5
-60
Urea-Black Sea
585.0
35
UAN (32%) New Orleans
599.7
-14.88
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