Afternoon report: Soybeans stay firm, with corn prices narrowly mixed on Friday.
Rainy weather is hitting some parched portions of the Great Plains, which is good news for the region’s embattled winter wheat acres – but it also gave traders an easy incentive to engage in a round of technical selling and profit-taking to end the week. Soybean prices tested moderate gains at times today, but they mostly evaporated by the close. And corn prices finished Friday’s session with slightly mixed results.
More thunderstorms and heavy rains are expected to rake across the Midwest and Plains over the next several days. An area stretching from Oklahoma up through North Dakota could gather another 1.5″ or more between Saturday and Tuesday, per the latest 72-hour cumulative precipitation map from NOAA. The agency’s 8-to-14-day outlook predicts seasonally wet weather will stick around the Northern Plains between May 6 and May 12, with cooler-than-normal conditions likely for much of the Corn Belt during that time.
Volatility continued on Wall St., Friday, with the Dow tumbling 575 points lower in afternoon trading to 33,340 as investors continue to worry about a bevy of economic problems, including rising interest rates, high inflation, war in Ukraine and more. Energy futures were mixed but mostly lower. Crude oil slid 0.5% lower to fall back below $105 per barrel. Gasoline dropped 1%, while June diesel contracts firmed 0.5%. The U.S. Dollar softened moderately.
On Thursday, commodity funds were net buyers of corn (+3,000) and soyoil (+7,500) contracts but were net sellers of soybeans (-6,500), soymeal (-6,000) and CBOT wheat (-2,500).
NOTE: Once again this season, Farm Futures will be collecting and regularly sharing farmer anecdotes in our Feedback from the Field series. The first round is already out – click here to see what’s happening around farm country and learn how you can participate.
Corn
Corn prices mostly failed in a bid to move even higher on Friday, finishing the session with narrowly mixed results after some uneven technical maneuvering to close out the week. May futures picked up 2.25 cents to $8.1825, while July futures eased 0.25 cents lower to $8.1325.
Corn basis bids were steady to firm on Friday after rising 2 cents higher at an Illinois ethanol plant and 2 to 5 cents higher at two interior river terminals today.
American farmers aren’t the only ones struggling with fertilizer decisions for the 2022 season. Bloomberg reports that Brazilian mega-farm SLC Agricola SA plans to decrease its fertilizer use between 20% and 25% this upcoming season. It will deploy soil testing and precision ag tactics to make these tough choices.
Ukrainian farmers still managed to export a fair amount of grain this month despite the ongoing Russian invasion. April’s totals included 24.5 million bushels of corn and 4.2 million bushels of wheat, according to Ukraine’s agriculture ministry. The country has been forced to shift its export efforts away from ports, using its western railways instead (which is much less efficient).
France’s 2022 corn crop is now 60% planted, up from 32% a week ago but behind 2021’s pace of 69%, per the country’s farm office FranceAgriMer.
Governors from eight Midwestern states have asked the EPA to approve year-round sales of E15. That included a bipartisan group representing Iowa, Illinois, Kansas, Minnesota, Nebraska, North Dakota, South Dakota and Wisconsin, which are home to more than half of the nation’s E15 fueling stations. Farm Futures policy editor Jacqui Fatka did some additional reporting on the matter – click here to learn more.
Preliminary volume estimates were for 230,409 contracts, shifting moderately below Thursday’s final count of 285,652.
Soybeans
Soybean prices tested moderate overnight gains that partly evaporated as Friday’s session wore on. Current supply and demand fundamentals remain bullish overall. May futures added 6.5 cents to $17.13, while July futures inched 0.25 cents higher to $16.85.
Soybean basis bids tilted 4 cents lower at an Ohio elevator but held steady elsewhere across the central U.S. on Friday.
Favorable weather has sped up Argentina’s 2021/22 soybean harvest, which has reached 46.4% completion through April 27, according to the country’s Buenos Aires Grains exchange. That’s up from 15.2% a week ago. Buenos Aires Grains exchange held its soybean production estimates steady, at 1.543 billion bushels.
China still plans to sell another 18.4 million bushels of its imported soybean reserves on an auction to be held on May 6, according to its National Grains Trade Center. The sale is intended to boost domestic supplies and quell high soymeal prices.
Meantime, China’s sow herd fell 3.3% lower month-over-month to 41.85 million head. That’s also down 3.1% from a year ago. The decline is largely attributed to poor hog margins.
If it’s been a few days since you’ve visited FarmFutures.com, our Friday feature “7 ag stories you might have missed” is an easy way to catch up on the industry’s top headlines. The latest batch of content includes stories about Plains ranchers recovering from a historic blizzard earlier this month, an update on USDA’s food-price forecasts and more. Click here to get started.
Preliminary volume estimates were for 109,124 contracts, sliding slightly below Thursday’s final count of 128,839.
Wheat
Wheat prices were slashed on a round of technical selling and profit-taking as much-needed rains are finally coming to the drought-stressed Plains. Will it be enough to save this season’s low-quality crop, however? July Chicago SRW futures dropped 30.75 cents to $10.55, July Kansas City HRW futures lost 35 cents to $11.0625, and July MGEX spring wheat futures fell 15.75 cents to $11.7575.
The European Commission lowered its 2022/23 forecast for EU wheat production to 4.780 billion bushels, citing downgrades in France and Sweden. The group held its export estimates steady at 1.470 billion bushels, which would be a record, if realized.
French farm office FranceAgriMer estimates that 91% of the country’s soft wheat crop is rated in good-to-excellent condition through April 25, which is steady from a week ago and 10 points higher than year-ago results of 81%.
Turkey purchased 9.9 million bushels of milling wheat in an international import tender that closed earlier today. The purchases are considered provisional at this time and are still subject to final confirmation.
Iraq’s deputy agriculture minister says the country’s wheat production this season could come in as much as 110 million bushels, which would create sufficient supplies through the end of 2022.
Preliminary volume estimates were for 65,637 CBOT contracts, moving 19% ahead of Thursday’s final count of 55,366.
Settlement Prices for Key Commodities
High
Low
Last
Change
Corn $/bushel
22-May
827
814
818.25
2.25
22-Jul
824.5
809.5
813.5
-0.25
Soybeans
22-May
1727.75
1707
1708.25
6.5
22-Jul
1704.75
1679.25
1684.75
0.25
Soymeal $/ton
22-Jul
440
430.1
432.3
3.4
Soyoil cents/lb
22-Jul
87.65
84.03
84.18
-2.42
Wheat $/bushel
22-May
1085
1043.75
1043.75
-30
22-Jul
1102.5
1054.25
1055.75
-30.75
KC Wheat
22-May
1140.5
1109
1094.25
-25
22-Jul
1152.75
1104.25
1105.75
-35
MPLS Wheat
22-May
1180.5
1171
1161.25
-14.25
22-Jul
1202.75
1163.75
1166
-15.75
Live Cattle cents/lb
22-Apr
141.9
138.05
141.9
3.4
Feeder Cattle cents/lb
22-May
170.9
167.325
168.65
-1.75
Lean Hogs cents/lb
22-Jun
110.75
106.225
106.45
-4.525
Crude Oil $/barrel
*Energy prices may not represent final settlements
22-Jun
107.99
104.2
104.47
-0.89
Diesel
22-May
5.8595
4.4067
4.4192
-0.7162
Unleaded Gasoline $/gallon
22-May
3.5243
3.4591
3.463
-0.0404
Natural Gas
22-Jul
7.447
6.919
7.378
0.384
U.S. Dollar Index
22-Jun
103.685
102.81
102.965
-0.694
Gold $/ounce
22-Jun
1921.3
1893.5
1907.2
18.5
Copper
22-May
4.485
4.39
4.399
-0.0145
Fertilizer Swaps
(as of 04/29)
DAP Tampa-index
1,175.0
-7.5
DAP-New Orleans
989.3
-52.36
Urea-New Orleans
738.6
-99.21
Urea-Middle East
810.0
-140
Urea-Black Sea
585.0
35
UAN (32%) New Orleans
694.5
0
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