Afternoon report: Corn and wheat face moderate cuts, with soybeans narrowly mixed on Tuesday
Grain prices have spent much of 2022 at levels rarely seen, although prices have risen enough to attract a round of technical selling and profit-taking today. Wheat prices saw the most downside, with some contracts dropping more than 2%. Corn prices faded 1% to 1.25% lower by the close after testing modest overnight gains. And soybeans finished today’s session with narrowly mixed results.
More rains are coming to the Midwest later this week, with large portions of Arkansas, Missouri, Iowa, Illinois and Indiana likely to see 0.75″ or more between Wednesday and Saturday, per the latest 72-hour cumulative precipitation map from NOAA. Further out, NOAA’s 8-to-14-day outlook predicts a return to seasonally dry conditions across large portions of the Midwest and Plains between April 26 and May 2. Cooler-than-normal weather is also likely for most of the country during this time.
On Wall St., the Dow climbed 372 points higher in afternoon trading to 34,783, with banking, tech and media stocks leading the charge. Energy prices spilled into the red, with crude oil down nearly 5% to $102 per barrel on fresh doubts over near-term global economic growth. Diesel dropped more than 1%, with gasoline down more than 3.5%. Volatile natural gas prices tumbled more than 8% lower. The U.S. Dollar firmed moderately.
On Monday, commodity funds were net buyers of all major grain contracts, including corn (+16,000), soybeans (+10,000), soymeal (+8,000), soyoil (+3,000) and CBOT wheat (+10,500).
Corn
Corn pricescouldn’t hold onto modest overnight gains as traders turned to technical selling and profit-taking today, trending 1% to 1.25% lower by the close. May futures dropped 10.25 cents to $8.03, with July futures down 8 cents to $7.99.
Corn basis bids were steady to mixed on Tuesday after sliding 2 to 4 cents lower at two ethanol plants while firming 1 to 9 cents higher at three other Midwestern locations today.
USDA released its latest crop progress report yesterday afternoon. Corn plantings were at 4% through Sunday, up from 2% a week earlier. Analysts were expecting a slightly better pace, with an average trade guess of 5%. It was also below 2021’s pace of 7% and the prior five-year average of 6%. The top three states that have made the most progress so far include Texas (64%), North Carolina (39%) and Kansas (12%).
European Union corn imports for the 2021/22 marketing year are trending slightly higher than last year’s pace, reaching 502.7 million bushels through April 17, per the latest data from the European Commission.
Brazil’s Anec is only expecting the country to export 33.5 million bushels of corn in April. Anec also anticipates Brazilian wheat exports will reach 5.7 million bushels this month.
Mike Downey, co-owner of Next Gen Ag Advocates, keeps asking an interesting question in the wake of hot farmland prices: Which will run out first, acres or buyers? “There is no question the hot farmland market continues. Land buyers still seek more acres, even after a record amount of land was offered for sale late last year,” he writes in the latest More than Dirt blog. Downey takes a closer look at the latest trends – click here to learn more.
Preliminary volume estimates were for 359,915 contracts, moving moderately ahead of Monday’s final count of 309,456.
Soybeans
Soybean prices remain in great shape overall but failing to move the needle significantly after a choppy session that featured some uneven maneuvering and mixed results. May futures picked up 2 cents to $17.1675, while July futures slid 1.25 cents lower to $16.92.
Soybean basis bids were mostly steady across the central U.S. on Tuesday but did move 2 cents higher at an Ohio elevator and 5 cents higher at an Illinois river terminal today.
Private exporters announced to USDA the sale of 4.5 million bushels of soybeans for delivery to unknown destinations during the 2021/22 marketing year, which began September 1.
Soybean plantings are off to a slower-than-usual start, with 1% progress nationwide. That’s slower than analysts expected, who had offered an average trade guess of 2%. Last year’s pace was 3%, and the prior five-year average was 2%. The three states that have made the most inroads so far include Louisiana (23%), Mississippi (10%) and Arkansas (8%).
Brazil’s Anec is estimating the country will export 440.2 million bushels of soybeans in April, which is slightly below its prior projection a week ago. Anec also anticipates Brazilian soymeal exports will reach 1.956 million metric tons this month.
European Union soybean imports during the 2021/22 marketing year have reached 413.0 million bushels through April 17, which is slightly below last year’s pace so far. EU soymeal imports are also trending slightly lower year-over-year, at 13.02 million metric tons.
Preliminary volume estimates were for 165,974 contracts, slipping slightly below Monday’s final count of 169,135.
Wheat
Wheat prices succumbed to moderate losses as traders shrugged off lower-than-expected U.S. quality ratings and engaged in a round of technical selling and profit-taking. May Chicago SRW futures lost 24.25 cents to $10.9625, May Kansas City HRW futures dropped 16 cents to $11.69, and May MGEX spring wheat futures eased 4.75 cents to $11.7025.
USDA trimmed winter wheat quality ratings by two points this week, with just 30% rated in good-to-excellent condition. Analysts were expecting a one-point increase, in contrast. Another 33% of the crop is rated fair (up one point from last week), with the remaining 37% rated poor or very poor (also up one point from last week).
Physiologically, 7% of the crop is headed through Sunday, up from 5% the prior week. That’s slower than both 2021’s pace of 9% and the prior five-year average of 12%. For spring wheat, 9% of this year’s crop has been planted so far.
European Union soft wheat exports during the 2021/22 marketing year reached 781.2 million bushels through April 17, which is a year-over-year decline of 4.6% so far. EU barley exports are also tracking slightly below last year’s pace, with 291.7 million bushels.
Japan issued a regular tender to purchase 1.0 million bushels of food-quality wheat from Australia that closes on Thursday. The grain is for shipment in August.
Preliminary volume estimates were for 77,869 CBOT contracts, which was 22% higher than Monday’s final count of 63,930.
Settlement Prices for Key Commodities
High
Low
Last
Change
Corn $/bushel
22-May
819.75
799.75
804
-10.25
22-Jul
814
797
799.75
-8
Soybeans
22-May
1730
1705.25
1716.5
2
22-Jul
1705.75
1682
1691.75
-1.25
Soymeal $/ton
22-Jul
465.6
457.6
459.6
-0.6
Soyoil cents/lb
22-Jul
78.5
76.95
78.2
0.09
Wheat $/bushel
22-May
1135
1096
1099
-24.25
22-Jul
1143.5
1105.75
1109
-23
KC Wheat
22-May
1198
1167.25
1171.5
-16
22-Jul
1202.25
1171.75
1176.25
-15.5
MPLS Wheat
22-May
1185.25
1164
1169.25
-4.75
22-Jul
1188.5
1168
1172.25
-6.25
Live Cattle cents/lb
22-Apr
141.375
140.425
141.275
0.8
Feeder Cattle cents/lb
22-May
161.1
159.5
160.5
1.35
Lean Hogs cents/lb
22-May
123.075
121.025
121.15
-1.25
Crude Oil $/barrel
*Energy prices may not represent final settlements
22-May
108.92
102.1
102.35
-5.86
Diesel
22-May
3.9153
3.7555
3.8522
-0.0386
Unleaded Gasoline $/gallon
22-May
3.3885
3.2095
3.2339
-0.1442
Natural Gas
22-Jun
8.075
7.052
7.216
-0.742
U.S. Dollar Index
22-Jun
101.03
100.68
100.97
0.204
Gold $/ounce
22-May
1981
1950
1954.6
-28.3
Copper
22-Apr
4.7975
4.697
4.708
-0.088
Fertilizer Swaps
(as of 04/15)
DAP Tampa-index
1,240.0
0
DAP-New Orleans
1,052.7
0
Urea-New Orleans
854.3
-33.07
Urea-Middle East
995.0
-125
Urea-Black Sea
585.0
35
UAN (32%) New Orleans
694.5
-5.51
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