Morning report: Plus – findings from yesterday’s USDA Data Users’ Meeting. (Comments are updated by 7:30 a.m. Central Time.)
Corn down 4-9 cents
Soybeans down 9-16 cents, Soymeal down $1.70/ton, Soyoil down $1.43/lb
Chicago wheat down 24-26 cents, Kansas City wheat down 20-21 cents, Minneapolis wheat down 9-18 cents
*Prices as of 7:15 am CST.
Feedback from the Field updates – last day of the season (for real this time)! I didn’t get a chance to finish up yesterday’s FFTF column, so I will publish it today. In the meantime, there is still time to get one last response in for the season if you want to partake. Click this link to take the survey and share updates about your farm’s harvest progress. I review and upload results daily to the FFTF Google MyMap, so farmers can see others’ responses from across the country – or even across the county!
USDA-NASS Data Users’ Meeting
USDA held its Fall Data Users’ Meeting yesterday, which brought together the top minds from all of USDA’s statistical gathering agencies to explain any changes that have been made (or will be made) to administration and/or data and report releases. The meeting also gives data customers (i.e. analysts, farmers, any sort of USDA data end user) the opportunity to ask questions about the considerations and assumptions that go into calculating many of these reports.
Here were a few of the top insights I took away from yesterday’s meeting.
The great export report snafu
There were three weeks late this summer in which the USDA-Foreign Ag Service (FAS) weekly Export Sales report was not released after the implementation of a new reporting system went horribly wrong.
FAS had been developing the system over the past couple years, according to Patrick Packnett, USDA-FAS’s Deputy Administrator of the FAS’s Global Market Analysis. The existing system is “antiquated and needs to be brought up to today’s standards.”
But the August release was unsuccessful, so the legacy system was reinstated three weeks later. The old system continues to work without any issues.
Packnett shared that there is not a current timeline framed for the re-launch of the new system, though it will likely occur at some point in the next calendar year. And it could be launched more smoothly this time around, too.
Packnett shared that FAS plans on releasing more information for this system release than the last, which will provide a preview for end users about how the information will be organized so that end users can be more prepared and better trained for the new system – considerations that were not previously made when FAS attempted to launch the new export sales system in August 2022.
FAS has taken many of the lessons from the August 2022 export report system snafu and is hoping to creating better training opportunities from the upheaval. With the advance training, it will completely phase out the legacy system when the new system is implemented to avoid making the export reporters have to report the same data into two different systems.
Packnett acknowledged that the reporting process takes time and expressed appreciation for the work the reporters provide to ensure accurate export information every week. The new system’s implementation will have more collaboration with the exporter community.
This is a big win for us data end users. It means that not only will we have advance notice and training for this new system, but it is more likely to face fewer challenges and issues upon its release. At least, that is the hope!
Faster acreage reporting
NASS’s chief of the crops branch, Lance Honig, shared that NASS would finalize fall acreage reports for corn, soybeans, sorghum, and sugar beets in the September Crop Production (and WASDE) report instead of the October one going forward.
Those of you who read this newsletter faithfully will know that this NASS change was actually unofficially implemented this fall, which caused me to fumble my way through the September WASDE report’s release (sorry!!!).
But going forward, we can expect final acres in September with a little more certainty. Why is this? Honig explained that NASS, in conjunction with the Farm Service Agency (FSA) and Risk Management Agency (RMA), reconciles it with data from its surveyed and objective acreage methods.
FSA and RMA crop insurance and failed acreage data is typically finalized ahead of the August Crop Production and WASDE reports (released Aug. 12 this year), but this year there was a slight delay in the report’s release which ended up occurring on August 22.
And there is even better news here – Honig noted that the variance between FSA acres and NASS acres is decreasing. Both figures (though they in theory should represent the same acreages) are never the same, with NASS acres typically a little higher than FSA acres.
Why is there a difference in the acreage reports? Honig cited a few key reasons. First, there are bigger swings in acreages throughout growing season due largely to weather issues, which can provoke last minute farmer changes. When these data swings occur, USDA takes the time to review its own methodologies to ensure there isn’t an operational error.
Second, NASS is working to shrink the difference between FSA and NASS acreage differences, but acreage is inherently difficult to measure. However – third – NASS and FSA’s ability to measure acreage is improving. The big issue for NASS that remains is how to measure the portion of acres NOT reported to FSA.
In the event there is a delay in the acres being finalized in September, Honig assured data users that NASS would issue a bulletin to inform end users of the delay which would specify when the updated acres would be modified in the monthly Crop Production and WASDE reports. It would likely be delayed until October, but Honig said that unless NASS otherwise informs the public, expect to see finalized acres in the September Crop Production report going forward.
These were the top two items discussed in yesterday’s meeting. However, there were several other little gems of intel that I stashed away, including specifications as to how Ukrainian grain flows in Russian-occupied territories are measured. I’ll be publishing an E-corn-omics column later today sharing all of the insights, so keep an eye out for it!
Overnight
Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov spoke at the G20 Summit in Bali, Indonesia overnight. Lavrov’s comments were widely viewed as favorable in regard to allowing an extension of the Black Sea Grains Initiative, which has allowed for unencumbered transit of cargoes hauling Ukrainian grain out of Black Sea terminals since August.
Lavrov stated that Russia is “in favour of continuing the grain deal, but we are in favour of ensuring that the grain supplied under the Black Sea arrangements goes specifically to countries that need the grain, rather than to Western countries and countries with European economies, as is currently the case.”
Lavrov isn’t the only Russian diplomat indicating that the Black Sea Grains Initiative will be extended beyond its November 19 (this Saturday) deadline.
“We therefore spoke in favour of continuing this deal under the control of the grain supply destinations, so that this grain goes to the countries that are really in need,” Russian Finance Minister Anton Siluanov reaffirmed on Russian state TV last night.
U.N.-brokered talks between Ukraine and Russia are proving to be more fruitful for all parties involved, despite Russia’s earlier criticisms of the deal.
“You know that we are mainly talking about the part of the agreement that was designed to ensure the removal of restrictions on the supply of Russian products to foreign markets,” Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov told reporters overnight. “Experts are working intensively. Contacts with the U.N. have been quite constructive. Let’s wait for the remaining days to see the outcome.”
Corn
While the positive Russian comments about Ukraine were good for global grain buyers, it means more supply competition for the U.S. That prospect sent corn futures $0.04-$0.09/bushel lower this morning, with much of the bearish weakness following that of the U.S. wheat complex.
“The market is expecting Ukrainian exports to continue as the deal is likely to be extended,” a Singapore-based trader told Reuters this morning.
Soybeans
Despite recording the second-largest October NOPA soybean crush volume on record yesterday (184.5M bushels – right on the nose of pre-report trade guesses), bountiful rains in Brazil are raising hopes for a bumper crop, which will provide stiff competition with U.S. exportable supplies if the South American growing season progresses favorably.
The prospect of easing supply pressure sent U.S. soybean prices $0.09-$0.16/bushel lower during the overnight trading session.
Wheat
Chicago SRW wheat recorded its first loss in four trading sessions this morning on the heels of Russia’s favorable comments about Ukrainian grain corridors overnight. Some bearish pressure was also due to fast European Union soft wheat exporting paces, which are now 10% higher than year ago volumes.
U.S. wheat futures tumbled $0.09-$0.24/bushel lower on the prospects.
Weather
More winter weather is ahead for the Upper Midwest today, according to NOAA’s short-term forecasts. A likely chance of snow is forecasted across the Upper Midwest today in Minnesota, Wisconsin, Iowa, Michigan, and Northern Illinois, though total accumulation is likely to be far less than yesterday.
NOAA’s 6-10-day forecasts are now trending closer to normal for the Central Plains. But temperatures are likely to remain cooler in the Northern Plains, Eastern Corn Belt, and Southern Plains during that time. Chances for rain will be below normal in the Central Plains, though some areas of the Southern Plains and Eastern Corn Belt could see an above average chance of showers.
Those trends will begin to shift slightly in the 8-10-day outlook. Forecasts during that time are much warmer for the Western half of the country than in the 6-10-day forecast. The chances for excessive dryness during that time will recede slightly and center over the Central Plains, with the Eastern Corn Belt expecting an above average chance of moisture during that time.
What else I’m reading this morning on our website, FarmFutures.com:
Mike Downey cautions readers of the unintended consequences of an excessively high farm appraisal.
As many states attempt to install their own pesticide regulations, Congress has been asked to reaffirm pesticide preemptions.
Bryce Knorr explains why you shouldn’t read too much into the CPI inflationary reading’s impact on corn prices.
There are several factors impacting the corn and soybean market that Naomi Blohm thinks you should be watching through the end of the year.
The 2023 Farm Futures Business Summit will feature an array of speakers – including myself! – that will provide you insights to keep running a profitable farm business.
Morning Ag Commodity Prices – 11/16/2022
Contract
Units
High
Low
Last
Net Change
% Change
DEC ’22 CORN
$ / BSH
6.6525
6.58
6.5825
-0.085
-1.27%
MAR ’23 CORN
$ / BSH
6.68
6.6025
6.605
-0.0875
-1.31%
MAY ’23 CORN
$ / BSH
6.67
6.5925
6.595
-0.0825
-1.24%
JUL ’23 CORN
$ / BSH
6.6075
6.54
6.5425
-0.0725
-1.10%
SEP ’23 CORN
$ / BSH
6.26
6.2075
6.2075
-0.0525
-0.84%
DEC ’23 CORN
$ / BSH
6.1425
6.085
6.085
-0.0575
-0.94%
AR2 ’24 CORN
$ / BSH
6.21
6.1725
6.1725
-0.0375
-0.60%
AY2 ’24 CORN
$ / BSH
6.2225
#N/A
6.23
0
0.00%
JUL ’24 CORN
$ / BSH
6.17
6.17
6.17
-0.03
-0.48%
JAN ’23 SOYBEANS
$ / BSH
14.55
14.415
14.42
-0.1525
-1.05%
MAR ’23 SOYBEANS
$ / BSH
14.595
14.46
14.465
-0.1525
-1.04%
MAY ’23 SOYBEANS
$ / BSH
14.65
14.525
14.525
-0.145
-0.99%
JUL ’23 SOYBEANS
$ / BSH
14.66
14.5425
14.5425
-0.14
-0.95%
AUG ’23 SOYBEANS
$ / BSH
14.435
14.3825
14.3825
-0.1225
-0.84%
SEP ’23 SOYBEANS
$ / BSH
14.0925
14.075
14.085
-0.055
-0.39%
NOV ’23 SOYBEANS
$ / BSH
13.9575
13.86
13.865
-0.105
-0.75%
AN2 ’24 SOYBEANS
$ / BSH
13.94
13.8775
13.9
-0.09
-0.64%
AR2 ’24 SOYBEANS
$ / BSH
13.7875
13.7675
13.7675
-0.12
-0.86%
AY2 ’24 SOYBEANS
$ / BSH
13.7725
#N/A
13.84
0
0.00%
UL2 ’24 SOYBEANS
$ / BSH
11.75
#N/A
13.84
0
0.00%
DEC ’22 SOYBEAN OIL
$ / LB
76.96
75.5
75.59
-1.39
-1.81%
JAN ’23 SOYBEAN OIL
$ / LB
74.66
73.31
73.38
-1.29
-1.73%
DEC ’22 SOY MEAL
$ / TON
410.1
407
408.2
-1.7
-0.41%
JAN ’23 SOY MEAL
$ / TON
407
404
405.2
-1.8
-0.44%
MAR ’23 SOY MEAL
$ / TON
403
400
400.9
-1.9
-0.47%
MAY ’23 SOY MEAL
$ / TON
401
397.6
398.2
-2.1
-0.52%
JUL ’23 SOY MEAL
$ / TON
400.4
397.7
398.1
-1.8
-0.45%
DEC ’22 Chicago SRW
$ / BSH
8.2975
8.02
8.025
-0.2575
-3.11%
MAR ’23 Chicago SRW
$ / BSH
8.54
8.2325
8.235
-0.245
-2.89%
MAY ’23 Chicago SRW
$ / BSH
8.5875
8.3425
8.3425
-0.24
-2.80%
JUL ’23 Chicago SRW
$ / BSH
8.6175
8.405
8.405
-0.2175
-2.52%
SEP ’23 Chicago SRW
$ / BSH
8.65
8.47
8.47
-0.22
-2.53%
DEC ’23 Chicago SRW
$ / BSH
8.71
8.575
8.575
-0.2075
-2.36%
AR2 ’24 Chicago SRW
$ / BSH
8.725
8.625
8.625
-0.1875
-2.13%
DEC ’22 Kansas City HRW
$ / BSH
9.6475
9.4175
9.4175
-0.2125
-2.21%
MAR ’23 Kansas City HRW
$ / BSH
9.57
9.34
9.34
-0.205
-2.15%
MAY ’23 Kansas City HRW
$ / BSH
9.49
9.27
9.27
-0.205
-2.16%
JUL ’23 Kansas City HRW
$ / BSH
9.37
9.1775
9.18
-0.19
-2.03%
SEP ’23 Kansas City HRW
$ / BSH
9.2675
9.15
9.1525
-0.195
-2.09%
DEC ’23 Kansas City HRW
$ / BSH
9.2725
9.27
9.27
-0.0975
-1.04%
AR2 ’24 Kansas City HRW
$ / BSH
0
#N/A
9.3
0
0.00%
DEC ’22 MLPS Spring Wheat
$ / BSH
9.72
9.555
9.555
-0.185
-1.90%
MAR ’23 MLPS Spring Wheat
$ / BSH
9.82
9.65
9.6575
-0.1675
-1.70%
MAY ’23 MLPS Spring Wheat
$ / BSH
9.815
9.75
9.775
-0.0925
-0.94%
JUL ’23 MLPS Spring Wheat
$ / BSH
9.795
9.695
9.695
-0.165
-1.67%
SEP ’23 MLPS Spring Wheat
$ / BSH
9.6
9.45
9.45
-0.18
-1.87%
DEC ’23 MLPS Spring Wheat
$ / BSH
9.52
#N/A
9.5975
0
0.00%
AR2 ’24 MLPS Spring Wheat
$ / BSH
0
#N/A
9.55
0
0.00%
DEC ’21 ICE Dollar Index
$
106.665
105.72
105.9
-0.395
-0.37%
DE ’21 Light Crude
$ / BBL
87.51
85.84
86.64
-0.28
-0.32%
JA ’21 Light Crude
$ / BBL
86.9
85.26
85.99
-0.26
-0.30%
DEC ’22 ULS Diesel
$ /U GAL
3.6721
3.5953
3.6538
0.0125
0.34%
JAN ’23 ULS Diesel
$ /U GAL
3.5362
3.465
3.5129
0.003
0.09%
DEC ’22 Gasoline
$ /U GAL
2.5437
2.4937
2.5198
0.0037
0.15%
JAN ’23 Gasoline
$ /U GAL
2.5014
2.4528
2.4812
0.007
0.28%
NOV ’22 Feeder Cattle
$ / CWT
0
#N/A
175.675
0
0.00%
JAN ’23 Feeder Cattle
$ / CWT
0
#N/A
177.025
0
0.00%
DE ’21 Live Cattle
$ / CWT
0
#N/A
151.275
0
0.00%
FE ’21 Live Cattle
$ / CWT
0
#N/A
153.05
0
0.00%
DEC ’22 Live Hogs
$ / CWT
0
#N/A
85.325
0
0.00%
FEB ’23 Live Hogs
$ / CWT
0
#N/A
90.075
0
0.00%
NOV ’22 Class III Milk
$ / CWT
20.99
#N/A
20.99
0
0.00%
DEC ’22 Class III Milk
$ / CWT
21.87
21.73
21.83
0
0.00%
JAN ’23 Class III Milk
$ / CWT
20.83
20.83
20.83
0.02
0.10%
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