Morning report: A stronger dollar offsets lower-than-expected winter wheat condition ratings. (Comments are updated by 7:30 a.m. Central Time.)
Corn mixed to 1-3 cents higher
Soybeans mixed; Soymeal up $0.80/ton; Soyoil down $0.18/lb
Chicago wheat down 6-8 cents; Kansas City wheat down 4-5 cents; Minneapolis wheat up 3-5 cents
*Prices as of 6:50am CDT.
Feedback from the Field is back! Our Feedback from the Field series is live for the 2022 season! Just click this link to take the survey and share updates about your farm’s spring progress. I review and upload results daily to the FFTF Google MyMap, so farmers can see others’ responses from across the country – or even across the county!
Corn
Corn prices hovered between losses and gains this morning after nearby futures notched a new 10-year high in yesterday’s trading session. But at last glance, corn prices across the board were $0.01-$0.03/bushel higher this morning as another day of new highs appears to be ripe for the picking despite profit-takers’ best intentions.
The price gains were largely due to persistent cool and wet weather across the Midwest, causing planting delays, though traders were also assessing potential supply risks due to the ongoing Russian-Ukrainian war.
Ukraine continues to battle storage woes as the 2022 season progresses. Even though top estimates place Ukraine’s 2022 harvest at 17%-20% lower than 2021 volumes, storage capacity for this year’s crops may not be adequate to ensure domestic production.
“The minister told us last week that the main concern at this stage is the lack of storage capacity to bring in the 2022 grain harvest. An estimated 15 million tonnes of grains will not have space in the silos around the country,” Jakob Kern, the World Food Programme’s emergency coordinator in Ukraine, told Reuters.
The danger also becomes a cash flow issue if Ukraine’s export market cannot be reopened amid the ongoing Russian invasion. “If Ukraine cannot export its current stocks, farmers may not be able afford harvesting costs, let alone plant the next year’s crop,” Kern continued.
Yesterday’s Crop Progress report saw 4% of expected 2022 U.S. corn acreage planted as of April 17, up 2% from the previous week. Sowing progress continues to be centered in the South and in the Central Plains, where soil temperatures have warmed to the 50-55-degree benchmark for adequate seed germination.
However, cool and wet weather in the Upper Midwest and Eastern Corn Belt – where the primary volume of U.S. corn production is typically produced – remains 35 degrees or cooler, limiting planting activity. To that end, 2022 corn sowing rates fell below the five-year average for the same week by 2%.
Warmer weather is on the way to the Midwest beginning Thursday (perhaps because I have a trip back planned!) and NOAA’s 6- to 10-day outlook suggests mixed precipitation outlooks relative to proximity to the Missouri River.
If late-week showers do not soak Midwestern fields, soil temperatures in Iowa through Ohio could rise enough to begin planting over the weekend. Sowing activity is more likely to advance for growers west of the Mississippi River over the next week as La Nina weather patterns are likely to keep the Eastern Corn Belt moist for the second consecutive year.
Soybeans
Soybean prices inched up $0.01-$0.05/bushel this morning as cool and wet forecasts in the Midwest through the next couple days continue to slow planting progress.
Trucking activity in Argentina has largely resumed to normal levels after a trucker strike last week ground grain movement via truck to a halt. About 85% of Argentina’s grain and oilseed products are moved throughout the country by truck, so the strike essentially stopped the flow of all ag products across the country.
“The flow of trucks is back to normal”, Guillermo Wade, head of Argentina’s Chamber of Port and Maritime Activities, told Reuters.
Argentina is currently in its peak soybean and corn harvesting mode. And as the world’s third largest corn and soybean exporter and leading exporter for soybean products, last week’s Argentine truckers strike was particularly disruptive to both domestic and global markets.
USDA reported its first week of soybean planting progress yesterday, though due to the cold and wet nature of Spring 2022 in the Upper Midwest, there was not a lot of data to report. Only 1% of anticipated 2022 soybean acres, which are expected to notch a new record high this year and top corn acreage for only the third time in history, were planted as of April 17.
A year ago, soybean planting was 3% complete. The five-year average for the same time period stands at 2%. While soil conditions remain too cool in primary soybean growing regions, states in the Mississippi River Delta are moving full steam ahead on soybean planting progress.
Louisiana and Mississippi led the way for soybean planting progress over the past week, with planting 23% and 10% complete, respectively. Planting was further ahead of schedule in Louisiana than Mississippi, which should help keep export paces on track this fall. Soy crops in the Mississippi Delta are typically among the first harvested to supply export orders during the fall.
But similar to corn, if soil temperatures can heat up this weekend, growers in the Upper Midwest may get a jump start on 2022 planting activity in the coming week. Progress will also vie against corn acreage, especially with new crop corn futures contracts hitting life-of-contract highs so frequently in recent weeks, so it will be a very competitive spring planting season for both corn and soybeans.
Wheat
Chicago and Kansas City wheat futures pared back yesterday’s gains during the overnight trading session, falling $0.01-$0.05/bushel at last glance. Even though yesterday’s USDA Crop Progress report pointed to lower-than-expected crop ratings, a stronger dollar this morning helped offset yesterday’s bullish news for the winter wheat market.
Spring wheat futures in Minneapolis edged $0.03-$0.05/bushel higher on planting delays in the Northern Plains, as reported in yesterday’s Crop Progress report.
A week of somewhat clear skies helped spring wheat planting to advance 2% on the week, closing the week ending April 17 at 8% complete. That total is 1% lower than the five-year average for the same time period and a staggering 10% lower than last year’s quick paces.
Favorable planting progress in South Dakota and Minnesota were the chief contributors to faster planting speeds for the 2022 spring wheat crop. North Dakota sowings even made a comeback this week despite heavy snowfall last week.
But the planting delays in Minnesota and North Dakota continue to hold nationwide progress back for the 2022 spring wheat crop. Following last year’s spring wheat production shortfall, expect rallies in the Minneapolis futures market this week if weather in the Northern Plains continues to be troublesome for spring wheat acreage.
Similar sentiments are at play for winter wheat acreage this year. Persistent drought across the Plains dropped condition ratings for the winter wheat crop this week by 2%. As of April 17, only 30% of U.S. winter wheat crops remained in good to excellent condition. A year ago, crop ratings stood at 53% good to excellent. It is the lowest winter wheat condition rating for this time of year since 1996.
About 69% of U.S. winter wheat is currently in a region experiencing drought, according to the latest Drought Monitor data released last week.
Inputs
Preliminary shipping data shows that Russian cargo vessels with fertilizer supplies are arriving at Brazilian ports, despite international banking restrictions. Reuters expects at least 24 vessels are bringing nearly 678,000 tonnes of fertilizer from Russia into Brazil over the coming weeks.
Brazil imports nearly all of its fertilizer from international sources, with Russia being a primary supplier. The trades are likely being made through Russian financial institutions not yet impacted by Western banking sanctions.
“These volumes show that Brazil kept buying even as prices soared and the war threatened to disrupt sales from companies in Russia and Belarus,” a Reuters report by Ana Mano surmised. It also ensures that Brazil’s fall planting season will start off without any delays due to fertilizer accessibility.
Weather
It’s another day of cool temperatures in the Midwest today, according to NOAA’s short-range forecasts. Scattered showers are possible in the Southern Plains this afternoon while snow and rain systems will consolidate in the Upper Plains overnight, resulting in rain across the Upper Mississippi River Valley tomorrow. The system will reach the Eastern Corn Belt by Thursday before it dissipates.
Financials
U.S. stock indices edged slightly lower overnight amid a selloff in European stock markets. Globally, investors are grappling with the reality of more aggressive monetary policy actions (rising interest rates) that will help cool off the global surge in inflation as the world collectively moves into the post-pandemic arena.
Also worth a read on our website, FarmFutures.com:
Naomi Blohm reminds growers that ending stocks for nine grain and oilseed commodities remain shockingly low – a bullish sign for commodity prices.
Bryce Knorr has the latest insights into the fertilizer market and a few key reasons why high fertilizer prices are likely to stick around.
Here are six tips to lower your farm’s fuel bill during planting season this spring.
Check out our latest Farm Progress 365 webinar sessions for the latest risk management and weather tips!
Commstock’s Matthew Kruse thinks that Ukrainian exports could pick up pre-war loading paces as soon as the Russians leave in a recent Ag Marketing IQ column.
Morning Ag Commodity Prices – 4/19/2022
Contract
Units
High
Low
Last
Net Change
% Change
MAY ’22 CORN
$ / BSH
8.1975
8.0875
8.1375
0.005
0.06%
JUL ’22 CORN
$ / BSH
8.14
8.03
8.085
0.015
0.19%
SEP ’22 CORN
$ / BSH
7.7175
7.625
7.6775
0.0175
0.23%
DEC ’22 CORN
$ / BSH
7.55
7.4725
7.52
0.0225
0.30%
MAR ’23 CORN
$ / BSH
7.56
7.4925
7.54
0.0275
0.37%
MAY ’23 CORN
$ / BSH
7.55
7.4925
7.535
0.0275
0.37%
JUL ’23 CORN
$ / BSH
7.5
7.4475
7.485
0.0225
0.30%
MAY ’22 SOYBEANS
$ / BSH
17.3
17.11
17.2025
0.055
0.32%
JUL ’22 SOYBEANS
$ / BSH
17.0575
16.89
16.965
0.0325
0.19%
AUG ’22 SOYBEANS
$ / BSH
16.58
16.4425
16.5025
0.025
0.15%
SEP ’22 SOYBEANS
$ / BSH
15.745
15.6475
15.6925
0.0175
0.11%
NOV ’22 SOYBEANS
$ / BSH
15.2875
15.1575
15.2125
0.0025
0.02%
JAN ’23 SOYBEANS
$ / BSH
15.265
15.15
15.2
0
0.00%
MAR ’23 SOYBEANS
$ / BSH
15.045
14.945
14.9875
0
0.00%
MAY ’23 SOYBEANS
$ / BSH
15
14.91
14.945
0
0.00%
JUL ’23 SOYBEANS
$ / BSH
14.95
14.905
14.94
0.01
0.07%
MAY ’22 SOYBEAN OIL
$ / LB
80.54
79.38
79.88
-0.11
-0.14%
JUL ’22 SOYBEAN OIL
$ / LB
78.5
77.3
77.76
-0.33
-0.42%
MAY ’22 SOY MEAL
$ / TON
468.8
464.1
467.5
1.5
0.32%
JUL ’22 SOY MEAL
$ / TON
462.8
458.4
461.7
1.4
0.30%
AUG ’22 SOY MEAL
$ / TON
452.1
448.9
450.8
1.5
0.33%
SEP ’22 SOY MEAL
$ / TON
439.7
436.1
438.7
1.4
0.32%
OCT ’22 SOY MEAL
$ / TON
427.9
425.6
427.2
1.9
0.45%
MAY ’22 Chicago SRW
$ / BSH
11.35
11.0775
11.16
-0.045
-0.40%
JUL ’22 Chicago SRW
$ / BSH
11.435
11.1625
11.2475
-0.04
-0.35%
SEP ’22 Chicago SRW
$ / BSH
11.3625
11.1075
11.1825
-0.05
-0.45%
DEC ’22 Chicago SRW
$ / BSH
11.25
11.0175
11.0975
-0.0475
-0.43%
MAR ’23 Chicago SRW
$ / BSH
11.15
10.9175
10.9875
-0.06
-0.54%
MAY ’22 Kansas City HRW
$ / BSH
11.98
11.7525
11.8275
-0.0225
-0.19%
JUL ’22 Kansas City HRW
$ / BSH
12.0225
11.795
11.9
0.01
0.08%
SEP ’22 Kansas City HRW
$ / BSH
11.9625
11.7375
11.84
-0.005
-0.04%
DEC ’22 Kansas City HRW
$ / BSH
11.88
11.67
11.7425
-0.0375
-0.32%
MAR ’23 Kansas City HRW
$ / BSH
11.69
11.6775
11.6775
-0.0375
-0.32%
MAY ’22 MLPS Spring Wheat
$ / BSH
11.8525
11.685
11.75
0
0.00%
JUL ’22 MLPS Spring Wheat
$ / BSH
11.885
11.72
11.805
0.025
0.21%
SEP ’22 MLPS Spring Wheat
$ / BSH
11.71
11.5475
11.655
0.05
0.43%
DEC ’22 MLPS Spring Wheat
$ / BSH
11.71
11.5525
11.6475
0.0325
0.28%
MAR ’23 MLPS Spring Wheat
$ / BSH
11.65
#N/A
11.5875
0
0.00%
JUN ’21 ICE Dollar Index
$
101.02
100.68
100.89
0.124
0.12%
MA ’21 Light Crude
$ / BBL
108.92
105.8
106.96
-1.25
-1.16%
JU ’21 Light Crude
$ / BBL
108.37
105.23
106.37
-1.24
-1.15%
MAY ’22 ULS Diesel
$ /U GAL
3.9153
3.798
3.8452
-0.0456
-1.17%
JUN ’22 ULS Diesel
$ /U GAL
3.668
3.5606
3.6013
-0.0422
-1.16%
MAY ’22 Gasoline
$ /U GAL
3.3885
3.3021
3.3286
-0.0495
-1.47%
JUN ’22 Gasoline
$ /U GAL
3.3706
3.2819
3.3109
-0.0471
-1.40%
APR ’22 Feeder Cattle
$ / CWT
0
#N/A
155.775
0
0.00%
MAY ’22 Feeder Cattle
$ / CWT
0
#N/A
159.15
0
0.00%
AP ’21 Live Cattle
$ / CWT
0
#N/A
140.475
0
0.00%
JU ’21 Live Cattle
$ / CWT
0
#N/A
135.8
0
0.00%
MAY ’22 Live Hogs
$ / CWT
0
#N/A
116.525
0
0.00%
JUN ’22 Live Hogs
$ / CWT
0
#N/A
122.4
0
0.00%
APR ’22 Class III Milk
$ / CWT
24.27
24.25
24.25
-0.05
-0.21%
MAY ’22 Class III Milk
$ / CWT
25.08
24.92
24.96
-0.17
-0.68%
JUN ’22 Class III Milk
$ / CWT
25.22
25.16
25.2
-0.05
-0.20%
