Several southern states had year-over-year declines in hay production.
USDA-NASS published their 2021 Crop Production Summary. The report includes information about U.S. hay production and Dec. 1 hay stocks. USDA splits hay data into two categories: alfalfa and all other hay. All other hay is the relevant category for the Southeast.
All other hay production totaled 70.951 million tons in 2021, down 3.8% from the prior year. Several southern states had year-over-year declines in hay production. All other hay production declined 2.3%, 2.7%, and 16.1% in Tennessee, Arkansas, and Mississippi. Alabama hay production declined 6.7% year-over-year. All other hay production increased 6.7% in Kentucky.
Smaller 2021 hay production followed a decline in harvested acres. Nationally, harvested acres for the other hay category declined by 1.4%. In the Southeast (AL, AR, FL, GA, KY, LA, MS, NC, SC, TN, VA, WV), harvested acreage decreased 4.2% year-over-year. Harvested acreage in Arkansas and Mississippi declined 7.1% and 4.6%, respectively. Kentucky harvested acreage declined 1.5%.
As of December 1, 2021, hay stocks totaled 79.016 million tons, down 6% from the previous year. December 1 hay stocks are the lowest since 2012. In the Southeast, December 1 hay stocks declined 4.3%. December 1 hay stocks dropped 5.6% and 4.8% in Arkansas and Mississippi, respectively. Kentucky hay stocks declined 2%.
All else equal, smaller production and tighter stocks mean higher prices. The most recent data for November has hay prices averaging $147/ton or 8.9% higher year-over-year. Hay prices will continue to increase through the winter. Hay prices in February and March typically average 1.4% and 3.6% above the annual price. This winter, we could see hay prices average $150-$160/ton.
Mitchell is an Extension economist with the University of Arkansas.
