Morning report: Corn edges lower amid harvest pressure. (Comments are updated by 7:30 a.m. Central Time.)
Corn down 1cent
Soybeans up 5-11 cents; Soymeal up $1.00/ton; Soyoil down $0.66/lb
Chicago wheat down 1 cent; Kansas City wheat down 1-3 cents; Minneapolis wheat up 3-4 cents
*Prices as of 6:55am CDT.
Feedback from the Field updates! How is harvest progressing on your farm this fall?! Click this link to take the survey and share updates about your farm’s harvest progress. I review and upload results daily to the FFTF Google MyMap, so farmers can see others’ responses from across the country – or even across the county!
My latest FFTF column is live on our site! Soybean harvest is rapidly coming to a close across the country and more and more FFTF respondents are reporting corn harvest as complete. This week’s article focuses on yield reflection. Here are a few of the latest farmer insights from the article!
“Corn too wet,” an Eastern Wisconsin corn producer cited as the chief reason for slow harvest speeds in the Badger State.
“All dryland burned up and unharvestable. Irrigated acres production down 30 to 40 percent.” – Western Kansas corn grower.
“Average to slightly better [than corn yields].” Central Illinois soybean producer.
“Mostly doing well yield wish with 60 to 62 bpa. But have one field to harvest that had a lot of rain which will bring down the average,” said a Northwestern Ohio soybean grower. “Many farmers are finished in the area. Neighbor got almost 220 bpa corn and 65 bpa beans. Second crop beans after wheat got hit by frost while still very green. Time will tell how that affects yield.”
“[We] cut back planted acres by 25 percent due to drought,” shared a Kansas wheat producer late last week. “Wheat has barely emerged and already showing signs of stress.”
Author’s note: In yesterday’s report, I incorrectly implied that the European Union had sanctioned Russian natural gas supplies and as a result were no longer buying natural gas from Russia. In fact, the E.U. has not sanctioned Russian natural gas supplies and it was Russia – not the E.U. – that halted natural gas flows to the bloc.
Western sanctions continue to exempt Russian natural gas flows. I apologize for this error. I hope you all take it as a cautionary tale of the Russian propaganda machine’s pervasive power in the media and are double-checking your facts – whether you get them from me, the radio, social media, etc. – for accuracy against reliable news sources. The Associated Press, Reuters, Wall Street Journal, Bloomberg, and New York Times are my gold standards for fact-checking when I can’t obtain straight-sourced data/information.
I forced myself to do that exercise yesterday and am very grateful to be providing you more accurate information this morning as a result.
Breaking overnight
German chemical producer BASF is considering a “permanent” reduction to operations at all of its European plant locations as the company battles lackluster growth prospects, soaring natural gas prices, and a heavy regulatory burden.
“These challenging framework conditions in Europe endanger the international competitiveness of European producers and force us to adapt our cost structures as quickly as possible and also permanently,” BASF CEO Martin Brudermueller said in a statement released by the company overnight.
BASF had previously indicated in its earnings release three weeks ago that it was planning to reduce costs in Europe by 500 million euros ($501 million) by 2024. More expense reduction measures are expected to be implemented by the company early next year.
As reported yesterday, U.S. nitrogen exports to Europe have more than doubled in the past year as the high cost of natural gas has limited fertilizer production in Europe over the past couple months. Further production cuts could keep U.S. nitrogen fertilizer prices high and could also increase competition for a dwindling volume of global nitrogen stocks.
Corn
A Ukrainian Agrarian Council forecast released yesterday estimates that October 2022 Ukrainian grain shipments will likely be 8% higher than its September 2022 counterpart. Clear skies are also returning to the Midwest through the next few days, paving the way for rapid harvest progress.
The bearish sentiments compounded to send corn prices just under a penny lower this morning.
Soybeans
Soybean prices continued yesterday’s bullish price run overnight, rising $0.05-$0.11/bushel this morning on a weaker dollar, higher energy prices, and strong international demand for edible oils, as evidenced by many offers made for an Egyptian tender to purchase international vegetable oils.
Wheat
Wheat futures were mixed this morning, with Chicago and Kansas City wheat prices edging $0.01-$0.02/bushel lower while Minneapolis futures rose $0.03-$0.04/bushel. Rains in the Eastern Corn Belt today and in the Southern Plains earlier this week helped ease worries about winter wheat crop conditions, plus the extended forecast is showing higher chances for wetter weather for both regions in the coming week.
Drought-stressed Argentina is also slated to receive beneficial rains over the next couple days. Lackluster export movement has also had a bearish impact on U.S. wheat prices in recent weeks. The sentiments sent the nearby Chicago SRW contract flirting with a five-week low this morning.
“There is improved weather outlook for U.S. winter wheat crop,” an Australia-based analyst told Reuters overnight. “At the same time there is growing optimism that the Black Sea export corridor will be expended.”
Weather
Cool temperatures will blanket the Heartland today, according to NOAA’s short-term forecasts. A cross-country rain system that has lingered over the Heartland since earlier this week will settle over the Eastern Corn Belt today before quickly moving into the Northeast by this evening.
Precipitation from the system will be light – not likely to top a half inch. South Dakota and Nebraska could also see a chance of light showers today.
NOAA’s 6-10-day forecasts are now trending warmer for the Midwest and Plains and wetter for the entire country. Chances for rain are highest in the Pacific Northwest and Northern Plains, though the Southern Plains could see some moisture relief as well.
Those trends will continue to hold for the 8-10-day outlook, though a higher chance of rain will move into the Upper Midwest during that time.
Financials
Lackluster earnings reports released after the close of yesterday’s trading session (primary offenders: Google’s parent company, Alphabet, and Microsoft) weighed on Wall Street equity indices overnight, pushing the S&P 500 0.50% lower overnight to $3,851.00.
Recessionary fears underscored market sentiments in the aftermath of the Alphabet and Microsoft earnings release last night, reminding market watchers we are currently treading in previously unnavigated waters.
“These companies are really important bellwethers on advertising and on flows of goods and services,” Fahad Kamal, chief investment officer at Kleinwort Hambros, told the Wall Street Journal. “If advertising growth is slowing over there, it is adding weight to that fear of an earnings slowdown.”
Today’s hope for better earnings results to prop up the market? Kraft Heinz (key for farmers will be any info about consumer spending on food), Boeing, Harley-Davidson, Meta (the artist formerly known as Facebook), and Ford Motor company.
Warmer than expected fall temperatures in Europe (I’m so jealous. My beautiful basil plants died of frost on Monday and I’m beside myself) are helping to keep a cap on European – and global – natural gas prices for now. In the U.S. this morning, other energy product prices traded higher despite higher U.S. supplies and lackluster demand growth outlooks.
What else I’m reading this morning on our website, FarmFutures.com:
Advance Trading’s Josh Green examines the likelihood of corn and soybeans jumping back to $7/bushel and $14/bushel, respectively, price levels.
Is it time to sell 2023 crops? Bryce Knorr points out that corn offers an easier path to profits next year.
Water Street Solutions’ Darren Frye has three proactive steps farmers should take to ensure a farm operation’s legacy.
Pinion’s (formerly K Coe Isom) Davon Cook is doing the math to resolve family conflicts on the farm.
Morning Ag Commodity Prices – 10/26/2022
Contract
Units
High
Low
Last
Net Change
% Change
DEC ’22 CORN
$ / BSH
6.8975
6.835
6.8625
0
0.00%
MAR ’23 CORN
$ / BSH
6.955
6.8925
6.92
-0.0025
-0.04%
MAY ’23 CORN
$ / BSH
6.9475
6.8925
6.9175
-0.0025
-0.04%
JUL ’23 CORN
$ / BSH
6.885
6.83
6.8525
-0.005
-0.07%
SEP ’23 CORN
$ / BSH
6.4125
6.3725
6.4
0.01
0.16%
DEC ’23 CORN
$ / BSH
6.28
6.235
6.25
-0.0075
-0.12%
AR2 ’24 CORN
$ / BSH
6.35
6.3175
6.35
0.0225
0.36%
AY2 ’24 CORN
$ / BSH
6.3675
#N/A
6.3475
0
0.00%
JUL ’24 CORN
$ / BSH
6.33
#N/A
6.3125
0
0.00%
NOV ’22 SOYBEANS
$ / BSH
13.95
13.7875
13.9125
0.0925
0.67%
JAN ’23 SOYBEANS
$ / BSH
14.055
13.8875
14.015
0.0925
0.66%
MAR ’23 SOYBEANS
$ / BSH
14.1375
13.975
14.1025
0.0925
0.66%
MAY ’23 SOYBEANS
$ / BSH
14.2125
14.0525
14.18
0.09
0.64%
JUL ’23 SOYBEANS
$ / BSH
14.245
14.09
14.215
0.0875
0.62%
AUG ’23 SOYBEANS
$ / BSH
14.0975
13.96
14.0975
0.1
0.71%
SEP ’23 SOYBEANS
$ / BSH
13.775
13.6975
13.755
0.0525
0.38%
NOV ’23 SOYBEANS
$ / BSH
13.675
13.55
13.65
0.0675
0.50%
AN2 ’24 SOYBEANS
$ / BSH
13.64
13.58
13.64
0.02
0.15%
AR2 ’24 SOYBEANS
$ / BSH
11.5
#N/A
13.565
0
0.00%
AY2 ’24 SOYBEANS
$ / BSH
13.635
#N/A
13.545
0
0.00%
DEC ’22 SOYBEAN OIL
$ / LB
73.12
71.97
72.77
0.49
0.68%
JAN ’23 SOYBEAN OIL
$ / LB
70.27
69.17
69.92
0.45
0.65%
DEC ’22 SOY MEAL
$ / TON
419.9
412.8
417.1
1.5
0.36%
JAN ’23 SOY MEAL
$ / TON
412.1
405.3
409.6
2.1
0.52%
MAR ’23 SOY MEAL
$ / TON
402.8
396.6
401
2.9
0.73%
MAY ’23 SOY MEAL
$ / TON
398.7
392.5
397.2
3.5
0.89%
JUL ’23 SOY MEAL
$ / TON
398.6
393.1
396.8
3.2
0.81%
DEC ’22 Chicago SRW
$ / BSH
8.425
8.28
8.3375
-0.01
-0.12%
MAR ’23 Chicago SRW
$ / BSH
8.6175
8.475
8.535
-0.0075
-0.09%
MAY ’23 Chicago SRW
$ / BSH
8.725
8.59
8.645
-0.0075
-0.09%
JUL ’23 Chicago SRW
$ / BSH
8.72
8.5925
8.65
-0.0025
-0.03%
SEP ’23 Chicago SRW
$ / BSH
8.7725
8.6825
8.705
0
0.00%
DEC ’23 Chicago SRW
$ / BSH
8.845
8.7275
8.7775
-0.005
-0.06%
AR2 ’24 Chicago SRW
$ / BSH
8.855
8.7675
8.7675
-0.0225
-0.26%
DEC ’22 Kansas City HRW
$ / BSH
9.4075
9.275
9.3425
-0.0025
-0.03%
MAR ’23 Kansas City HRW
$ / BSH
9.4
9.2675
9.35
0.01
0.11%
MAY ’23 Kansas City HRW
$ / BSH
9.385
9.285
9.37
0.045
0.48%
JUL ’23 Kansas City HRW
$ / BSH
9.31
9.2
9.2675
0.0025
0.03%
SEP ’23 Kansas City HRW
$ / BSH
9.265
9.2275
9.265
0.005
0.05%
DEC ’23 Kansas City HRW
$ / BSH
9.335
#N/A
9.3
0
0.00%
AR2 ’24 Kansas City HRW
$ / BSH
0
#N/A
9.25
0
0.00%
DEC ’22 MLPS Spring Wheat
$ / BSH
9.5975
9.485
9.565
0.0425
0.45%
MAR ’23 MLPS Spring Wheat
$ / BSH
9.6475
9.56
9.635
0.035
0.36%
MAY ’23 MLPS Spring Wheat
$ / BSH
9.695
9.64
9.695
0.035
0.36%
JUL ’23 MLPS Spring Wheat
$ / BSH
9.68
9.6325
9.6325
-0.0275
-0.28%
SEP ’23 MLPS Spring Wheat
$ / BSH
9.4
9.38
9.4
0.0125
0.13%
DEC ’23 MLPS Spring Wheat
$ / BSH
9.38
#N/A
9.36
0
0.00%
AR2 ’24 MLPS Spring Wheat
$ / BSH
0
#N/A
9.3225
0
0.00%
DEC ’21 ICE Dollar Index
$
111.015
109.785
110.06
-0.77
-0.69%
DE ’21 Light Crude
$ / BBL
86.29
84.14
86.14
0.82
0.96%
JA ’21 Light Crude
$ / BBL
85.23
83.17
85.07
0.76
0.90%
NOV ’22 ULS Diesel
$ /U GAL
4
3.9315
3.9926
0.0254
0.64%
DEC ’22 ULS Diesel
$ /U GAL
3.6027
3.5317
3.5929
0.0106
0.30%
NOV ’22 Gasoline
$ /U GAL
2.9293
2.8789
2.9237
0.0077
0.26%
DEC ’22 Gasoline
$ /U GAL
2.5703
2.525
2.5646
0.0079
0.31%
OCT ’22 Feeder Cattle
$ / CWT
0
#N/A
176.6
0
0.00%
NOV ’22 Feeder Cattle
$ / CWT
0
#N/A
177.925
0
0.00%
CT2 ’21 Live Cattle
$ / CWT
0
#N/A
151.675
0
0.00%
DE ’21 Live Cattle
$ / CWT
0
#N/A
153.3
0
0.00%
DEC ’22 Live Hogs
$ / CWT
0
#N/A
88.45
0
0.00%
FEB ’23 Live Hogs
$ / CWT
0
#N/A
90.675
0
0.00%
OCT ’22 Class III Milk
$ / CWT
21.77
21.77
21.77
-0.01
-0.05%
NOV ’22 Class III Milk
$ / CWT
20.8
20.8
20.8
-0.05
-0.24%
DEC ’22 Class III Milk
$ / CWT
19.34
19.34
19.34
-0.01
-0.05%
What else I’m reading this morning on our website, FarmFutures.com:Get our top content delivered right to your inbox. Subscribe to our morning and afternoon newsletters!
