Afternoon report: Corn prices ease slightly lower, with wheat turning in a mixed performance Tuesday
Grain prices were mixed on Tuesday following some uneven technical maneuvering as traders keep their eyes on South American production potential and the latest headlines from Ukraine, along with export trends, outside commodity action and more. Soybean showed the most upside after rebounding from heavy losses on Monday, closing today’s session with double-digit gains. Wheat prices were mixed but mostly higher. Corn prices faded slightly lower.
A huge winter storm system will bring a variety of disruptions to the central U.S. starting today, from strong winds and heavy snow in the Northern Plains to possible flooding and tornadoes further south. “This storm system will continue to produce numerous, widespread, and impactful weather hazards from the Rockies to the East Coast,” according to a statement from the National Weather Service. Further out, NOAA’s 8-to-14-day outlook predicts sharply cold weather for the central U.S. between December 20 and December 26, with seasonally dry weather likely to return to the eastern Corn Belt at Christmastime.
On Wall St., the Dow rose 90 points to 34,095 in afternoon trading after investors digested a better-than-expected set of inflation data. The new readings of the consumer price index showed a monthly increase of 0.1% and a yearly increase of 7.1% (analysts were expecting those numbers to come in at 0.3% and 7.3%). Energy futures jumped substantially higher, with gasoline up 3% to $75 per barrel. Diesel and gasoline each firmed around 4% higher today. The U.S. Dollar spilled 1% lower.
On Monday, commodity funds were net buyers of corn (+6,000), soyoil (+4,500) and CBOT wheat (+10,000) contracts but were net sellers of soybeans (-9,000) and soymeal (-5,000).
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Corn
Corn prices inched slightly lower as export concerns in the U.S. overrode logistical export concerns in Ukraine. December futures slid 0.25 cents lower to $6.41, with march futures down 1.5 cents to $6.5250.
Corn basis bids were mostly steady across the central U.S. on Tuesday but did trend 2 cents higher at an Illinois ethanol plant while sliding a penny lower at a Nebraska processor today.
Per the latest data from the European Commission, EU corn imports during the 2022/23 marketing year are more than doubling last year’s pace so far, with 516.9 million bushels through December 11. Brazil, Ukraine, Serbia, Canada and South Africa have been the top five suppliers so far.
Brazil’s Anec estimates that the country’s corn exports will climb to 263.8 million bushels in December, which is 23% higher than its prior forecast from a week ago.
Preliminary volume estimates were for 196,033 contracts, trending slightly below Monday’s final count of 203,848.
Soybeans
Soybean prices rebounded with double-digit gains after slumping substantially lower yesterday. A flash sale announced to USDA this morning lent assistance and contributed to the current bullish export sentiment. Eyes remain on South American production potential – so far, Brazil is expected to reap a record-breaking harvest this season, while Argentina may struggle with ongoing drought. January futures rose 20 cents to $14.8050, with March futures up 18.75 cents to $14.8425.
Soybean basis bids were steady across most Midwestern locations on Tuesday but did tilt 10 cents lower at an Illinois river terminal today.
Private exporters announced to USDA the sale of 5.1 million bushels of soybeans for delivery to unknown destinations during the 2023/24 marketing year, which begins September 1, 2023.
European Union soybean imports during the 2022/23 marketing year are running slightly below last year’s pace so far after reaching 178.6 million bushels through December 11. EU soymeal imports are also slightly lower year-over-year, with 7.11 million metric tons over the same period.
Brazil’s Anec estimates that the country’s soybean exports will reach 65.0 million bushels in December, which is slightly above its prior forecast from a week ago. Anec also expects to see soymeal exports at 1.6 million metric tons this month.
Interested in learning more about South American production and what it might mean for your bottom line in 2023? Farm Progress is offering a special session featuring Cesar Cruz, director of research with Advance Trading on December 22. Additional sessions next week will diesel trends and maximizing winter shop time. Click here to learn more about this free, seasonal content.
Preliminary volume estimates were for 251,414 contracts, shifting slightly higher than Monday’s final count of 229,098.
Wheat
Wheat prices were mixed but mostly higher on Tuesday. CBOT futures faced moderate declines after some profit-taking, while speculative buyers pushed other contracts higher today. March Chicago SRW futures dropped 4.75 cents to $7.50, March Kansas City HRW futures added 2.75 cents to $8.65, and March MGEX spring wheat futures gained 6.5 cents to $9.2275.
European Union soft wheat exports during the 2022/23 marketing year are tracking modestly higher year-over-year, reaching 565.1 million bushels through December 11. Morocco, Algeria, Egypt, Nigeria and Saudi Arabia have been the top five destinations so far. In contrast, EU barley exports have slumped 42% lower year-over-year, with 126.8 million bushels.
France, which is Europe’s top grain producer, could increase its 2022/23 soft wheat plantings by 1.7% to 11.738 million acres. French winter barley plantings are expected to increase 3.9% above the prior five-year average to 3.212 million acres.
Russia’s agriculture ministry says the country’s wheat production target for 2023 is between 2.940 billion and 3.123 billion bushels. Russia is the world’s No. 1 wheat exporter.
Brazil’s Anec expects the country’s wheat exports to reach 25.6 million bushels in December, which is modestly higher than its prior forecast made last week.
Japan issued a regular tender to purchase 5.7 million bushels of food-quality wheat from the United States, Canada and Australia that closes on Thursday. Of the total, 43% is expected to be sourced from the U.S. The grain is for shipment between January 16 and February 15.
The Philippines purchased 4.4 million bushels of animal feed wheat, likely sourced from Australia, in an international tender that closed late last week. The grain is comprised of two consignments that are for shipment in March and April.
Preliminary volume estimates were for 76,265 CBOT contracts, moving slightly above Monday’s final count of 71,125.
Settlement Prices for Key Commodities
High
Low
Last
Change
Corn $/bushel
22-Dec
650.5
639.25
643.75
-0.25
23-Mar
660
652.25
653.5
-1.5
Soybeans
23-Jan
1487.75
1460.75
1479.75
20
23-Mar
1492
1465.25
1484.5
18.75
Soymeal $/ton
23-Jan
459.7
450
452.3
2.9
Soyoil cents/lb
23-Jan
64.54
62.09
64.12
1.97
Wheat $/bushel
22-Dec
742.5
741
728.75
-4.25
23-Mar
769.25
749.75
750.75
-4.75
KC Wheat
22-Dec
891
891
883
11
23-Mar
879.25
862.25
865.25
2.75
MPLS Wheat
22-Dec
939.5
23-Mar
932
914.75
922.75
6.5
Live Cattle cents/lb
22-Dec
155.15
154.55
154.9
0.5
Feeder Cattle cents/lb
23-Mar
185.95
184.825
185.875
0.65
Lean Hogs cents/lb
23-Feb
86
83.85
84.85
1.15
Crude Oil $/barrel
*Energy prices may not represent final settlements
23-Jan
76.37
73.21
75.39
2.22
Diesel
23-Jan
3.1167
2.9503
3.0919
0.1234
Unleaded Gasoline $/gallon
23-Jan
2.1757
2.0815
2.1622
0.0812
Natural Gas
23-Feb
6.871
6.337
6.726
0.31
U.S. Dollar Index
22-Dec
105.085
103.53
104.01
-1.094
Gold $/ounce
23-Jan
1829
1785
1812.1
31.6
Copper
22-Dec
3.9145
3.806
3.8435
0.045
Fertilizer Swaps
(as of 12/02)
DAP Tampa-index
692.0
-8
DAP-New Orleans
630.0
0
Urea-New Orleans
512.5
0
Urea-Middle East
556.5
-31
Urea-Black Sea
585.0
35
UAN (32%) New Orleans
535.0
0
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