Afternoon report: Corn prices also move higher Thursday, while wheat posts mixed results
Grain prices were mixed but mostly higher on Thursday. Soybeans showed the most upside after grabbing double-digit gains again today as export optimism remains strong. Corn managed modest gains as well. Wheat turned in a mixed performance – spring wheat prices firmed 1%, while winter wheat prices faded around 0.25% lower.
Most areas east of the Mississippi River are likely to see at least some measurable rain and/or snow between Friday and Monday, per the latest 72-hour cumulative precipitation map from NOAA. The Mid-South is likely to see the largest amounts during this time. NOAA’s 8-to-14-day outlook shows seasonally wet weather is likely across the Plains between December 15 and December 21, with colder-than-normal temperatures likely across the central U.S. during this time.
On Wall St., the Dow firmed 68 points in afternoon trading to 33,666 as investors await fresh signals that a recession may (or may not) be on the horizon. Energy futures were mixed. Crude oil slid another 0.75% lower this afternoon to $71 per barrel and is down around $20 per barrel compared to late August. Gasoline also faded 1% lower, while diesel jumped 3.5% higher. The U.S. Dollar softened moderately.
On Wednesday, commodify funds were net buyers of corn (+2,500), soybeans (+7,000), soymeal (+3,500) and CBOT wheat (+8,000) contracts but were net sellers of soyoil (-3,000).
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Corn
Corn prices firmed despite less-than-impressive export data from USDA this morning after spillover strength from soybeans spurred some net technical buying on Thursday. December futures added 4.25 cents to $6.32, while March futures picked up a penny to reach $6.4225.
Corn basis bids were mostly steady to firm after rising 1 to 8 cents higher at three Midwestern locations on Thursday. An Iowa processor bucked the overall trend after easing 2 cents lower today.
Corn export sales moved slightly higher week-over-week to 27.4 million bushels. That was near the middle of trade estimates, which ranged between 11.8 million and 42.3 million bushels. Cumulative totals for the 2022/23 marketing year remain well below last year’s pace for now, with 262.7 million bushels since the beginning of September.
Corn export shipments were more robust, with 35.4 million bushels. China, Mexico, Japan, Canada and Taiwan were the top five destinations.
Brazil’s Conab is estimating the country’s total 2022/23 corn production at 4.954 billion bushels, which is slightly below its prior forecast of 4.976 billion bushels. Of the total, nearly 77% is expected to be comprised from Brazil’s second corn crop, with the remainder from the country’s first corn crop.
South Korea purchased 2.7 million bushels of animal feed corn from South America in an international tender that closed earlier today. The grain is for shipment between January 10 and February 10.
Mexico’s controversial move to ban imports for all genetically modified corn by 2024 has now been postponed until 2025 and the country’s economy minister reported that there will be possible moves that could ultimately overhaul the plan. The U.S. would need to make drastic moves to be able to supply non-GMO corn at current purchase rates of around 669 million bushels per year.
Naomi Blohm has questions. “Do corn prices have a tendency to fall apart into year end? Does it matter if carryout perception is deemed large or small? With current U.S. corn carryout the smallest it has been in a decade, does that matter to prices? What if the funds keep selling? What if the Feds keep raising interest rates? Will U.S. corn export sales pick up?” That led to some investigations and analysis that Blohm serves up in today’s Ag Marketing IQ blog. You won’t want to miss this one! Click here to start reading.
Preliminary volume estimates were for 118,201 contracts, which was well below Wednesday’s final count of 197,508.
Soybeans
Soybean prices saw double-digit gains again on Thursday after private exporters announced two more large flash sales to USDA this morning, adding more fuel to the latest rally. January futures rose 14.50 cents to $14.8650, with March futures up 12.75 cents to $14.90.
Soybean basis bids fell 5 to 10 cents lower at two Midwestern processors and dropped 5 cents at an Iowa river terminal while holding steady elsewhere across the central U.S. on Thursday.
Private exporters announced two more large soybean sales to USDA on Thursday. The first was for 26.4 million bushels to unknown destinations, and the second was for 4.3 million bushels to China. Both sales are for delivery during the 2022/23 marketing year, which began September 1.
Soybean exports jumped from 25.0 million bushels the prior week up to 64.2 million bushels in combined old and new crop sales. That bested the entire range of trade estimates, which came in between 22.0 million and 53.3 million bushels. Cumulative totals for the 2022/23 marketing year are still moderately below last year’s pace, with 778.0 million bushels.
Soybean export shipments were impressive, with 82.6 million bushels. China, Germany, Indonesia, Taiwan and Mexico were the top five destinations.
Brazil’s Abiove joins the growing chorus of voices predicting the country’s 2022/23 soybean production will carve out new records. Abiove’s new estimate is for 5.640 billion bushels. Soybean exports are expected to rise to 3.417 billion bushels. Brazilian soyoil production is expected to increase slightly year-over-year, to 10.7 million metric tons.
The Philippines issued an international tender to purchase 135,000 metric tons of soymeal from optional origins that closes on Friday. The grain is for shipment between February and May, depending on where it is sourced.
Preliminary volume estimates were for 264,861 contracts, trending moderately below Wednesday’s final count of 302,084.
Wheat
Wheat prices were mixed following some uneven technical maneuvering on Thursday. Winter wheat prices returned to a pattern of technical selling that created small cuts. March Chicago SRW futures eased 1.75 cents to $7.4775, with March Kansas City HRW futures down 2 cents to $8.4675. In contrast, March MGEX spring wheat futures rose 9 cents to $9.11 today.
Wheat export sales were relatively disappointing, with just 7.0 million bushels. That was toward the lower end of analyst estimates, which ranged between 5.5 million and 14.7 million bushels. Cumulative totals for the 2022/23 marketing year are slightly behind last year’s pace, with 358.3 million bushels.
Wheat export shipments were also lackluster, with 9.5 million bushels. The Philippines, Japan, Algeria, Mexico and Nigeria were the top five destinations.
As expected, Japan purchased 5.7 million bushels of food-quality wheat from the United States, Canada and Australia in a regular tender that closed earlier today. Of the total, 41% was sourced from the U.S. The grain is for shipping beginning in mid-January.
The Philippines issued an international tender to purchase 4.0 million bushels of feed wheat from optional origins that closes on Friday. The grain is for shipment between February and May.
Preliminary volume estimates were for 48,200 CBOT contracts, sliding moderately below Wednesday’s final count of 75,269.
Settlement Prices for Key Commodities
High
Low
Last
Change
Corn $/bushel
22-Dec
632.5
626
632
4.25
23-Mar
645.25
638.25
642.5
1
Soybeans
23-Jan
1492.25
1468
1486.25
14.5
23-Mar
1496.25
1473
1490.25
12.75
Soymeal $/ton
23-Jan
468.6
455.9
466.4
7.4
Soyoil cents/lb
23-Jan
62.22
60.8
61.31
0.43
Wheat $/bushel
22-Dec
726.75
721
724.25
-2.75
23-Mar
755.5
737.5
746.25
-1.75
KC Wheat
22-Dec
864.5
864.5
860.5
0
23-Mar
852
831.25
844.75
-2
MPLS Wheat
22-Dec
923.75
923
927.75
11
23-Mar
911.5
894
909.5
9
Live Cattle cents/lb
22-Dec
152.55
152
152.45
0.525
Feeder Cattle cents/lb
23-Mar
185.175
183.425
185.05
1.8
Lean Hogs cents/lb
23-Feb
85.9
83.1
84.725
-1.925
Crude Oil $/barrel
*Energy prices may not represent final settlements
23-Jan
75.44
71.12
71.6
-0.41
Diesel
23-Jan
2.8929
2.775
2.8722
0.0917
Unleaded Gasoline $/gallon
23-Jan
2.1312
2.0463
2.0511
-0.0261
Natural Gas
23-Feb
6.007
5.649
5.803
0.186
U.S. Dollar Index
22-Dec
105.415
104.685
104.77
-0.286
Gold $/ounce
23-Jan
1799
1786.7
1790.3
4.8
Copper
22-Dec
3.9045
3.837
3.883
0.0275
Fertilizer Swaps
(as of 12/02)
DAP Tampa-index
692.0
-8
DAP-New Orleans
630.0
0
Urea-New Orleans
512.5
0
Urea-Middle East
556.5
-31
Urea-Black Sea
585.0
35
UAN (32%) New Orleans
535.0
0
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