Afternoon report: Corn also firm in Tuesday’s session, while wheat suffers moderate setback
Grain prices were mixed but mostly higher Tuesday. Soybeans saw the most upside, capturing double-digit gains after a round of technical buying partly spurred by spillover strength from Wall St. Corn prices were also firm, closing with gains of around 0.4%. Wheat prices failed to follow suit, however, as much-needed rains are expected to fall on parts of the Plains over the next few days. Most contracts faded 0.5% to 0.75% lower.
Wet weather is expected across much of the central U.S. over the next several days – especially in parts of the eastern Corn Belt, which could gather another 1.5″ or more between Tuesday and Friday, according to the latest 72-hour cumulative precipitation map from NOAA. The agency’s new 8-to-14-day outlook predicts more seasonally wet weather for most areas above I-80 between November 1 and November 7, with
Has rainy weather slowed down your fieldwork recently, or is harvest progressing as planned? Click this link to take the survey and share updates about your farm’s crop development. Farm Futures grain market analyst Jacqueline Holland regularly reviews and uploads results to the FFTF Google MyMap, so farmers can keep current with peer anecdotes from around the country.
On Wall St., the Dow was on its way to extending its current rally after rising another 324 points in afternoon trading to 31,824, partly on declining Treasury yields. Energy futures also pushed higher, with crude oil up 0.9% this afternoon to $85 per barrel. Diesel saw similar gains, while gasoline jumped more than 6% higher on news that Valero does not plan to reopen several refineries that the company shuttered over the past few years. The U.S. Dollar softened considerably.
On Monday, commodity funds were net buyers of soyoil (+1,000) contracts but were net sellers of corn (-2,500), soybeans (-9,000), soymeal (-4,000) and CBOT wheat (-4,000).
Corn
Corn prices tracked 0.4% higher on spillover strength from outside markets, with a weakening U.S. Dollar also proving supportive today. December futures added 3 cents to $6.8450, with March futures up 2.75 cents to $6.9050.
Corn basis bids were steady to mixed on Tuesday after trending 8 to 10 cents higher at two ethanol plants while sliding 2 to 10 cents lower at two other Midwestern locations today.
Nearly all (97%) of this year’s corn crop is fully mature, up from 94% last week and matching the prior five-year average. Harvest progress moved from 45% a week ago up to 61% through Sunday. That’s modestly behind 2021’s pace of 64% but still well ahead of the prior five-year average of 52%. Of the top 18 production states, Pennsylvania (20%) and Wisconsin (22%) still have the farthest way to go.
With harvest past the halfway mark for both corn and soybeans, USDA won’t be providing additional quality ratings updates. Last week, the agency noted that 53% of the corn crop was rated in good-to-excellent condition, and 57% of the soybean crop was rated in good-to-excellent condition.
Will corn prices be able to move back above the $7 per bushel benchmark after downward seasonal harvest pressure subsides? That is a question worth asking, according to Josh Green with Advance Trading. “The answer is yes, but there are no guarantees,” Green offers. To see how he arrived at that opinion, click here to read his analysis in today’s Ag Marketing IQ blog.
Brazil’s Anec now expects the country’s corn exports to reach 254 million bushels in October, which is moderately below the group’s last estimate from a week ago.
Per the latest data from the European Commission, 2022/23 EU corn imports reached 355.9 million bushels through October 23, which is more than doubling last year’s pace so far.
South Korea purchased 2.6 million bushels of animal feed corn, likely sourced from South America or South Africa, in a private deal that closed earlier today. The grain is for arrival in early February.
Preliminary volume estimates were for 175,210 contracts, which was modestly lower than Monday’s final count of 185,072.
Soybeans
Soybean prices captured double-digit gains on a round of technical buying partly spurred by general export optimism, with gains in stocks and energy prices offering additional support today. November futures rose 10.5 cents to $13.8250, with January futures up 11.75 cents to $13.93.
Soybean basis bids were steady to mixed after tracking 5 to 15 cents higher at three processors while moving 1 to 10 cents lower at three other Midwestern locations on Tuesday.
This year’s soybean harvest moved from 63% last week up to 80% through Sunday. That puts the 2022 harvest well ahead of last year’s pace of 71% and the prior five-year average of 67%. None of the top 18 production states are 100% complete, but Louisiana (96%) and Minnesota (95%) are very close.
Brazil’s Anec slightly increased its estimates for the country’s soybean exports in October, with a new projection of 138.5 million bushels. Anec also upped its soymeal export estimate, which is now at 2.074 million metric tons.
European Union soybean imports during the 2022/23 marketing year have reached 128.6 million bushels through October 23, which is modestly below last year’s pace so far. EU soymeal imports are also below year-ago results, with 4.94 million metric tons.
Preliminary volume estimates were for 208,633 contracts, falling slightly below Monday’s final count of 226,183.
Wheat
Wheat prices suffered a moderate technical setback, falling to a one-month low after another round of technical selling on Tuesday. Losses were mostly contained in the 0.5% to 0.75% range. December Chicago SRW futures fell 6 cents to $8.3275, December Kansas City HRW futures dropped 5.25 cents to $9.3275, and December MGEX spring wheat futures faded 4.5 cents to $9.5325.
Winter wheat planting progress moved from 69% a week ago up to 79% through October 23. That was a bit slower than analysts were anticipating, with an average trade guess of 81% prior to today’s report. That puts the 2022/23 crop slightly behind last year’s pace of 79% but identical to the prior five-year average.
European Union soft wheat exports during the 2022/23 marketing year is trending slightly above last year’s pace so far after reaching 409.7 million bushels through October 23. EU barley exports are well below last year’s pace, in contrast, with 108.9 million bushels over the same period.
Jordan issued a new international tender to purchase 4.4 million bushels of milling wheat from optional origins that closes on November 1. That grain would be for shipment in March and April. Jordan also completed the purchase of 2.2 million bushels of milling wheat from a tender that closed today.
Thailand purchased 2.2 million bushels of animal feed wheat, likely sourced from Australia or the Black Sea region, in a tender that closed late last week. The grain is for shipment between February and April.
Taiwan issued an international tender to purchase 1.4 million bushels of grade 1 milling wheat sourced from the United States. The deadline to submit offers is on Thursday, and the grain is for shipment in mid to late December.
Preliminary volume estimates were for 78,377 CBOT contracts, which was moderately below Monday’s final count of 61,016.
Settlement Prices for Key Commodities
High
Low
Last
Change
Corn $/bushel
22-Dec
687.5
677.75
686.25
3
23-Mar
693.25
684
692.25
2.75
Soybeans
22-Nov
1386.5
1366
1382
10.5
23-Jan
1396.5
1375.5
1392.25
11.75
Soymeal $/ton
23-Jan
410.3
401.4
407.5
4.2
Soyoil cents/lb
23-Jan
69.66
68.6
69.47
0.19
Wheat $/bushel
22-Dec
844.75
826.75
834.75
-6
23-Mar
864
846.75
854.25
-6
KC Wheat
22-Dec
943
924
934.5
-5.25
23-Mar
941.75
923.25
934
-4.75
MPLS Wheat
22-Dec
959.5
945.75
952.25
-4.5
23-Mar
967.25
953.5
960
-4
Live Cattle cents/lb
22-Oct
151.8
151.45
151.675
0.075
Feeder Cattle cents/lb
22-Nov
179.7
177.7
177.725
-1.425
Lean Hogs cents/lb
23-Feb
91.15
89.725
90.725
0.275
Crude Oil $/barrel
*Energy prices may not represent final settlements
22-Dec
86.03
83.06
84.98
0.4
Diesel
22-Nov
3.9843
3.876
3.9436
0.0235
Unleaded Gasoline $/gallon
22-Nov
2.9263
2.6755
2.8907
0.1605
Natural Gas
22-Dec
6.181
5.727
6.156
0.403
U.S. Dollar Index
22-Dec
112.065
110.625
110.845
-1.064
Gold $/ounce
22-Nov
1660.5
1637
1641.1
-7.6
Copper
22-Oct
3.46
3.46
3.46
-0.0195
Fertilizer Swaps
(as of 10/21)
DAP Tampa-index
700.0
5
DAP-New Orleans
801.9
2.76
Urea-New Orleans
650.4
-16.53
Urea-Middle East
702.5
-55
Urea-Black Sea
585.0
35
UAN (32%) New Orleans
617.3
0
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