Afternoon report: Corn and wheat prices also firm ahead of the holiday weekend
NOTE: Grain markets will be closed on Monday, September 5, in observance of the federal Labor Day Holiday. Be sure to come back to Farm Futures on Tuesday morning for our next round of ag news and market analysis.
Grain prices received some much-needed relief on Friday as traders engaged in some technical buying and short-covering ahead of the three-day Labor Day weekend. Soybean prices earned the biggest bounce, with nearby contracts rising more than 3% higher. Corn prices were up 1% to 1.5%, and most wheat contracts closed 1% to 2% higher today.
The eastern Corn Belt could see another round of rainfall and collect another 0.75″ or more in some areas between Saturday and Tuesday, while areas farther west will remain dry during this time, according to the latest 72-hour cumulative precipitation map from NOAA. The agency’s 8-to-14-day outlook predicts seasonally wet weather for the southern U.S. between September 9 and September 15, while most of the country will see warmer-than-normal conditions.
On Wall St., the Dow tested morning gains of nearly 400 points but drifted back into the red, trending 237 points lower in afternoon trading to 31,418 as investors still wrestle with fears of high inflation and rising interest rates. Energy futures made solid inroads, with crude oil up nearly 1% this afternoon to $87 per barrel. Diesel shifted 1.5% higher, while gasoline jumped 4% higher. The U.S. Dollar softened slightly.
On Thursday, commodity funds were net sellers of corn (-10,500), soybeans (-9,500), soyoil (-10,000) and CBOT wheat (-10,000) contracts. Funds were roughly even when trading soymeal contracts yesterday.
Corn
Corn prices followed a broad set of other commodities higher after a round of technical buying and short-covering on Friday. September futures firmed 10 cents to $6.6825, with December futures up 6.25 cents to $6.6425.
Corn basis bids faced a few wild swings on Friday, jumping as much as 60 cents higher at a Nebraska elevator while tumbling as much as 35 cents lower at an Ohio elevator.
Brazilian corn exports reached 297.4 million bushels in August, which was a year-over-year increase of 74%, according to governmental data published yesterday.
French farm office FranceAgriMer once again noted lower quality ratings for the country’s embattled 2022 crop, with just 45% rated in good-to-excellent condition through August 29. Compare that to year-ago results of 91%! Harvest is just beginning to start, with 1% complete through Monday.
USDA announced improvements to two of its most comprehensive safety net programs – the Whole-Farm Revenue Protection and Micro Farm. “Listening to farmers and ranchers, learning about their needs and increasing access to resources are all priorities for us at RMA,” according to RMA Administrator Marcia Bunger. “Over the past year and a half, we have rolled out a number of improvements to WFRP, as well as introduced the new Micro Farm program, and through updates to Whole Farm Revenue Protection and Micro Farm, RMA can now help even more local food, direct market, specialty crop and organic producers protect their operations.” Click here to learn more.
Preliminary volume estimates were for 108,219 contracts, only reaching around half of Thursday’s final count of 219,362.
Soybeans
Soybean prices found some forward momentum heading into a long weekend after some technical buying and short-covering lifted prices 1.75% to 3% higher on Friday. September futures climbed 37.75 cents to $15.1050, with November futures up 25 cents to $14.1975.
Soybean basis bids showed plenty of volatility on Friday after sliding 15 to 85 cents lower at two Midwestern elevators while firming 10 to 60 cents higher at three other Midwestern locations today.
USDA reported that the domestic soybean crush in July totaled 181 million bushels, up from 174 million bushels in June and 166 million bushels a year ago. Refined soyoil production reached 1.68 billion pounds in July, which was a 2% increase from June.
Brazilian soybean exports in August reached 226.3 million bushels, versus year-ago results of 238.1 million bushels.
China will again auction off another 18.4 million bushels of its state imported soybean reserves on September 9. The country has routinely offered similarly sized auctions throughout 2022 in an effort to quell high prices and replenish local supplies.
Ukraine’s sunflower and soybean harvests have begun. The country’s sunflower harvest is just 1% complete, with a total production of 81,700 metric tons so far. Ukraine is a significant player on the world sunflower oil export market.
How do your farm’s crop conditions stack up against other operations in the U.S.? Click this link to take the survey and share updates about your farm’s crop development. Farm Futures grain market analyst Jacqueline Holland regularly reviews and uploads results to the FFTF Google MyMap, so farmers can peer anecdotes from around the country.
Preliminary volume estimates were for 81,033 contracts, trending 34% below Thursday’s final count of 123,554.
Wheat
Wheat prices mostly saw double-digit gains on Friday following a round of technical buying that was partly triggered by spillover support from corn, soybeans and crude oil. A weakening U.S. Dollar lent some support as well. December Chicago SRW futures rose 15 cents to $8.0925, December Kansas City HRW futures added 8.5 cents to $8.7650, and December MGEX spring wheat futures picked up half a penny to $8.87.
Russia’s agriculture ministry reported today that the country is prepared to export as much as 30 million metric tons of grain (presumably most of which will be wheat, along with some corn and barley) during the second half of 2022. “This will support countries in need and help stabilize the global food situation,” according to a statement the agriculture ministry issued. Russia is the world’s No. 1 wheat exporter.
Are recession fears – whether here in the United States or globally – warranted? That’s a debate that’s been picking up steam in recent weeks, notes Naomi Blohm, senior market adviser with Stewart Peterson. Several trends are currently in play, and Blohm has been tracking a few key factors in particular. Click here to find out what she learned in yesterday’s Ag Marketing IQ blog.
Haven’t ventured onto FarmFutures.com in a while? No worries – our Friday feature “7 ag stories you might have missed” is an easy way to quickly catch up on the industry’s top headlines. The latest batch of content includes stories about a new autonomous spreader, USDA investments to climate-smart agriculture and more – click here to get started.
Preliminary volume estimates were for 43,531 CBOT contracts, tracking moderately below Thursday’s final count of 79,326.
Settlement Prices for Key Commodities
High
Low
Last
Change
Corn $/bushel
22-Sep
671
656.75
669
10
22-Dec
669.5
656.5
665.75
6.25
Soybeans
22-Sep
1518.5
1480
1510.5
37.75
22-Nov
1422
1391.75
1420.5
25
Soymeal $/ton
22-Oct
428.5
421.9
424
1.4
Soyoil cents/lb
22-Oct
68.07
65
67.94
2.54
Wheat $/bushel
22-Sep
795.25
790
793
17.5
22-Dec
819.5
796.25
811
15
KC Wheat
22-Sep
883.25
872.75
871.5
16.5
22-Dec
893
870.25
877.75
8.5
MPLS Wheat
22-Sep
890
874
872.25
10.25
22-Dec
908.5
885
890
0.5
Live Cattle cents/lb
22-Oct
144.75
142.8
144.725
1.925
Feeder Cattle cents/lb
22-Oct
185.325
183.4
185.075
0.725
Lean Hogs cents/lb
22-Dec
83.675
82.25
82.65
-1.125
Crude Oil $/barrel
*Energy prices may not represent final settlements
22-Oct
89.66
86.35
86.99
0.38
Diesel
22-Oct
3.6827
3.5172
3.5982
0.037
Unleaded Gasoline $/gallon
22-Oct
2.4978
2.3807
2.455
0.0697
Natural Gas
22-Nov
9.31
8.692
8.812
-0.518
U.S. Dollar Index
22-Sep
109.675
108.91
109.49
-0.188
Gold $/ounce
22-Oct
1719.8
1696.9
1713.3
16.7
Copper
22-Sep
3.4615
3.389
3.4235
0.009
Fertilizer Swaps
(as of 09/02)
DAP Tampa-index
820.0
0
DAP-New Orleans
833.9
18.19
Urea-New Orleans
766.1
82.67
Urea-Middle East
863.0
68.5
Urea-Black Sea
585.0
35
UAN (32%) New Orleans
531.9
55.12
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