Grain prices were mixed but mostly higher on Wednesday. Export optimism kept corn prices in the green, closing with gains of around 0.5%. The soybean complex fared even better. Soybeans tracked 1.4% higher to move back above $17 per bushel, with soymeal up 1.75% and soymeal climbing 2%. Wheat failed to follow suit after a round of technical selling left most contracts with losses between 0.5% and 1%.
A bit of additional rainfall could land on parts of the upper Midwest and eastern Corn Belt between Thursday and Sunday, per the latest 72-hour cumulative precipitation map from NOAA. The agency’s new 8-to-14-day outlook predicts seasonally cool weather for the upper Midwest and Great Lakes region between March 30 and April 5, with widespread wetter-than-normal conditions across the Midwest and Plains during that time.
On Wall St., the Dow dropped 341 points in afternoon trading to 34,466, with rising oil costs sparking fresh fears over inflation. Energy prices jumped substantially higher on reports of a major Russian pipeline closure and the implications for tightening global supplies. Crude oil climbed more than 5% to move back to $115 per barrel. Diesel jumped more than 6% higher, with gasoline up around 3.25%. The U.S. Dollar firmed slightly.
On Tuesday, commodity funds were net buyers of soybeans (+3,000) and soyoil (+2,500) contracts but were net sellers of soymeal (-4,000). Funds were roughly even trading corn and CBOT wheat contracts yesterday.
Corn
Corn prices shifted 0.5% higher after U.S. export optimism and worries over Ukraine’s export capacity led to another round of technical buying today. May and July futures each added 3.75 cents to close at $7.5675 and $7.3350, respectively.
Corn basis bids were steady to mixed on Wednesday, trending as much as 5 cents higher at an Iowa river terminal and as much as 20 cents lower at an Illinois processor today.
Ethanol production moved to the highest level since mid-January, per the latest data from the U.S. Energy Information Administration, out earlier today. Production averaged 1.042 million barrels per day for the week ending March 18. Stocks rose another 1% and are at the highest level in nearly two years.
Ahead of tomorrow morning’s export report from USDA, analysts are expecting to see another robust round of corn sales for the week ending March 17. Individual trade guesses ranged between 35.4 million and 86.6 million bushels.
Grain traveling the nation’s railways totaled another 23,317 carloads last week. That brings year-to-date totals up to 248,891 carloads, which is 7.2% below 2021’s pace so far.
Argentina’s agriculture ministry reports that farmers have sold more than 740 million bushels of their 2021/22 corn crop, plus nearly 397 million bushels of this season’s soybean crop. Argentina is the world’s No. 2 corn exporter and is expected to harvest just over 2 billion bushels this season.
Preliminary volume estimates were for 232,187 contracts, trending slightly higher than Tuesday’s final count of 225,455.
Soybeans
Soybean prices climbed more than 1.25% higher Wednesday on a round of technical buying largely supported by export optimism and concerns over South American production potential. Spillover strength from red-hot energy prices lent additional support today. May futures rose 24.25 cents to $17.2075, with July futures up 21.75 cents to $17.0050.
Soybean basis bids were steady to firm on Wednesday after rising 6 to 8 cents at two interior river terminals and moving 3 cents higher at an Ohio elevator today.
Prior to Thursday morning’s export report from USDA, analysts think the agency will show soybean sales ranging between 29.4 million and 77.2 million bushels for the week ending March 17. Analysts also expect to see 100,000 to 335,000 metric tons of soymeal sales, plus up to 40,000 MT of soyoil sales.
Brazil’s Anec estimates that the country’s soybean exports will reach 474 million bushels in March, which is steady from its forecast a week ago. Anec also estimates that Brazilian soymeal exports will reach 1.845 million metric tons this month.
Preliminary volume estimates were for 132,082 contracts, inching fractionally below Tuesday’s final count of 132,312.
Wheat
Wheat prices failed to find additional forward momentum on Wednesday after traders engaged in some technical selling and profit-taking. Still, Chicago, Kansas City and Minneapolis contracts remain at or very near $11 per bushel during this historically unique rally. May Chicago SRW futures dropped 13.5 cents to $11.0475, May Kansas City HRW futures fell 7.75 cents to $11.0875, and May MGEX spring wheat futures lost 6.5 cents to $10.8925.
Ahead of tomorrow morning’s export report from USDA, analysts are in some disagreement over how much wheat sales to expect, with trade guesses coming in between 7.3 million bushels all the way up to 33.1 million bushels.
Ukrainian analyst APK-Inform reports that the country’s 2022 grain harvest could fall nearly 55% lower from last year because Russia’s invasion will significantly lower planted acres this season. The consultancy also expects 2022/23 grain exports to spill 32% lower, including 367.4 million bushels of wheat and 748.0 million bushels of corn.
Brazil is much more well known for its corn and soybean exports, but the country’s Anec estimates that it will also export 19.2 million bushels of wheat in March.
Egypt is the latest country negotiating wheat sales sourced from India as it seeks alternatives to grain from Russia and Ukraine. India is also said to be in talks with China, Turkey, Bosnia, Sudan, Nigeria and Iran. The country is expected to export around 257 million bushels of wheat this year – a record, if realized.
Turkey is thought to have imported 9.0 million bushels of wheat from optional origins that will be shipped in April. The purchases are provisional at the moment and are still subject to final confirmation.
Preliminary volume estimates were for 52,783 CBOT contracts, dipping below Tuesday’s final count of 64,228.
Settlement Prices for Key Commodities
High
Low
Last
Change
Corn $/bushel
22-May
770.5
749
757.75
3.75
22-Jul
744.75
726
734.75
3.75
Soybeans
22-May
1736.5
1691
1718.75
24.25
22-Jul
1713
1673.5
1698.5
21.75
Soymeal $/ton
22-Jul
482.2
469.7
477.6
7.4
Soyoil cents/lb
22-Jul
73.4
71.81
72.96
0.87
Wheat $/bushel
22-May
1139
1101
1105.75
-13.5
22-Jul
1121.25
1085.25
1091.25
-11
KC Wheat
22-May
1139.75
1105
1111.5
-7.75
22-Jul
1133.5
1099.25
1105.5
-4.75
MPLS Wheat
22-May
1116
1086.25
1089.25
-6.5
22-Jul
1111.25
1081.25
1084.75
-4.5
Live Cattle cents/lb
22-Apr
139.875
138.1
139.375
-0.05
Feeder Cattle cents/lb
22-Apr
162
158.85
161.6
1.025
Lean Hogs cents/lb
22-May
115.525
112.025
114.65
3.425
Crude Oil $/barrel
*Energy prices may not represent final settlements
22-Apr
115.4
108.38
114.85
5.58
Diesel
22-Apr
4.1284
3.7659
4.0946
0.2304
Unleaded Gasoline $/gallon
22-Apr
3.4576
3.2994
3.4392
0.1085
Natural Gas
22-May
5.364
5.152
5.255
0.028
U.S. Dollar Index
22-Jun
98.895
98.425
98.615
0.092
Gold $/ounce
22-Apr
1940.4
1915.6
Copper
22-Mar
4.747
4.683
4.746
0.057
Fertilizer Swaps
(as of 03/18)
DAP Tampa-index
1,017.5
122
DAP-New Orleans
1,083.0
35.83
Urea-New Orleans
983.3
82.12
Urea-Middle East
1,120.0
117
Urea-Black Sea
585.0
35
UAN (32%) New Orleans
661.4
0
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Afternoon report: Corn also trends moderately higher on Wednesday as wheat fades moderately lower.
