Afternoon report: Corn and soybeans also slightly firm in Wednesday’s session
Grain prices tacked on more gains in midweek trading, anchored by a surge in wheat prices over worries that Russia is escalating its war in Ukraine, which has (among many other things) negative implications for Ukraine’s ability to produce and export its crops. Soybeans and corn found more modest gains, meantime, moving 0.25% and 0.5% higher, respectively.
As Hurricane Ian makes landfall – and with so much wind and flooding damage expected – our thoughts and prayers are with all Floridians this week. It should be a quiet few days for the central U.S. weatherwise, in contrast. Little to no rain is expected between Thursday and Sunday, per the latest 72-hour cumulative precipitation map from NOAA. The agency’s new 8-to-14-day outlook predicts more seasonally warm, dry weather for the Midwest and Plains between October 5 and October 11.
On Wall St., the Dow finally found some relief, climbing 457 points higher in afternoon trading to 29,592 and is on pace to snap a six-session losing streak. Investors appear relieved that the Bank of England announced a bond-buying plan that should stabilize the British pound. Energy futures jumped substantially higher, with crude oil up nearly 4.5% this afternoon to just under $82 per barrel. Diesel shot up 5.75%, and gasoline climbed 3.25% higher. The U.S. Dollar softened significantly.
On Tuesday, commodity funds were net buyers of corn (+2,000) and CBOT wheat (+5,000) contracts but were net sellers of soybeans (-2,000), soymeal (-2,000) and soyoil (-2,000).
Corn
Corn prices captured modest gains on some net technical buying partly spurred by spillover strength from red-hot wheat prices. December futures picked up 3.25 cents to $6.7075, while March futures added 3.75 cents to $6.7650.
Corn basis bids were mostly steady to weak across the central U.S. after trending 5 to 29 cents lower at four Midwestern locations on Wednesday. An Illinois river terminal bucked the overall trend after firming 5 cents higher today.
Ethanol production took a sharp turn lower last week, falling to a daily average of 855,000 barrels for the week ending September 23. It was also the lowest weekly total since February 2021. Ethanol stocks ticked 1% higher last week.
Prior to the next USDA export report, out Thursday morning and covering the week through September 22, analysts expect the agency to show corn sales ranging between 9.8 million and 31.5 million bushels.
USDA’s next quarterly grain stocks report will be issued on Friday morning. Prior to that report, analysts estimate that the agency will show corn stocks at 1.512 billion bushels as of September 1. That’s well below June 1 totals of 4.346 billion bushels but moderately above year-ago results of 1.235 billion bushels.
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Grain traveling the nation’s railways saw another 19,540 carloads last week. That brings 2022 totals up to 828,752 carloads, which is 4.4% lower year-over-year so far.
South Africa’s Crop Estimates Committee is anticipating a 6.5% year-over-year drop for the country’s corn production, offering an estimate of 600.8 million bushels. South Africa, the continent’s top corn producer, produces both white and yellow corn in roughly even amounts.
Preliminary volume estimates were for 214,930 contracts, which was slightly below Tuesday’s final count of 225,840.
Soybeans
Soybean prices followed other commodities higher, overcoming moderate overnight losses to finish with gains of around 0.25% on Wednesday. November futures added 3 cents to $14.11, with January futures up 3.5 cents to $14.1750.
Soybean basis bids were mostly steady to weak after sliding 5 to 20 cents lower at three interior river terminals and falling 23 cents at an Ohio elevator on Wednesday. An Illinois processor bucked the overall trend after climbing 20 cents higher today.
Ahead of tomorrow morning’s export report from USDA, analysts expect the agency to show soybean sales ranging between 9.2 million and 31.2 million bushels for the week ending September 22. Analysts also think USDA will show soymeal sales ranging between 50,000 and 375,000 metric tons, plus up to 30,000 MT of soyoil sales.
Prior to Friday morning’s quarterly grain stocks report from USDA, analysts think the agency will show soybean stocks at just 242 million bushels as of September 1. If realized, that will be well below June totals of 971 million bushels and 15 million bushels less than year-ago totals.
In Argentina, the Buenos Aires grains exchange predicts the country’s 2022/23 soybean production will reach 1.764 billion bushels in its first estimate for the current season. The Buenos Aires grains exchange also offered corn production estimates of 1.968 billion bushels and wheat production estimates of 643 million bushels.
How are your crops looking right now? Is harvest progressing as planned? Click this link to take the survey and share updates about your farm’s crop development. Farm Futures grain market analyst Jacqueline Holland regularly reviews and uploads results to the FFTF Google MyMap, so farmers can peer anecdotes from around the country.
Preliminary volume estimates were for 253,366 contracts, trending 15% above Tuesday’s final count of 221,196.
Wheat
Wheat prices jumped 3% to 3.5% higher after traders focused on escalating tension in Ukraine and engaged in a round of technical buying. Russia is attempting to annex parts of Ukraine after extremely dubious referendums (ballots were cast at gunpoint, for starters). December Chicago SRW futures climbed 32 cents to $9.0350, December Kansas City HRW futures rose 32.25 cents to $9.7550, and December MGEX spring wheat futures gained 27.25 cents to $9.7050.
Prior to Thursday morning’s export report from USDA, analysts think the agency will show wheat sales ranging between 6.4 million and 18.4 million bushels for the week ending September 22.
Ahead of USDA’s next quarterly grain stocks report, out Friday morning, analysts expect the agency to show wheat stocks at 1.776 billion bushels through September 1. That would be well above June’s tally of 660 million bushels and nearly identical to year-ago results of 1.774 billion bushels, if realized.
Ukraine’s agriculture ministry reported that the country’s total grain exports for the 2022/23 marketing year are trending nearly 42% below year-ago totals amid ongoing struggles with the Russian invasion. Wheat exports have totaled 102.1 million bushels, along with 176.8 million bushels of corn and 30.7 million bushels of barley since the beginning of July.
The Philippines issued a tender to purchase up to 1.8 million bushels of animal feed wheat and up to 2.3 million bushels of feed barley that closes on Thursday. The grain is for shipment between January and March.
Preliminary volume estimates were for 72,568 CBOT contracts, inching slightly above Tuesday’s final count of 71,883.
Settlement Prices for Key Commodities
High
Low
Last
Change
Corn $/bushel
22-Dec
673.25
661.5
670.5
3.25
23-Mar
678.5
667.25
676.5
3.75
Soybeans
22-Nov
1412.5
1390.75
1408.75
3
23-Jan
1418.5
1397.75
1416.25
3.5
Soymeal $/ton
22-Dec
416.6
410.5
412.7
-0.5
Soyoil cents/lb
22-Dec
62.88
60.75
62.15
-0.24
Wheat $/bushel
22-Dec
905
862
903.25
32
23-Mar
917.25
875
915
31
KC Wheat
22-Dec
977.5
935.25
976
32.25
23-Mar
973.5
932.5
972
31.75
MPLS Wheat
22-Dec
973
936.75
972.5
27.25
23-Mar
977
943
977
27.75
Live Cattle cents/lb
22-Oct
144.2
142.925
143.3
-0.275
Feeder Cattle cents/lb
22-Oct
176.6
174.6
175.25
-0.875
Lean Hogs cents/lb
22-Dec
77.25
75.325
75.975
-0.275
Crude Oil $/barrel
*Energy prices may not represent final settlements
22-Nov
82.34
76.55
81.9
3.4
Diesel
22-Oct
3.4657
3.205
3.4437
0.1838
Unleaded Gasoline $/gallon
22-Oct
2.586
2.4631
2.5638
0.0707
Natural Gas
22-Nov
6.987
6.562
6.934
0.174
U.S. Dollar Index
22-Dec
114.745
112.455
112.47
-1.577
Gold $/ounce
22-Oct
1665.9
1618
1659.4
32.9
Copper
22-Sep
3.3525
3.332
3.3525
0.0295
Fertilizer Swaps
(as of 09/16)
DAP Tampa-index
765.0
-52.5
DAP-New Orleans
837.8
-5.51
Urea-New Orleans
734.1
25.9
Urea-Middle East
865.0
-20
Urea-Black Sea
585.0
35
UAN (32%) New Orleans
556.7
16.53
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