Afternoon report: Soybean prices stay firm, while corn and wheat ease slightly
Sometimes, big gains on Wall St. spill over into the grain markets. That wasn’t the case today, however. Grain prices were lightly mixed as traders closed out Friday’s session and headed into the weekend. Soybean prices made modest inroads, largely on support from moderate soymeal and soyoil gains. Corn prices eased slightly, as did most wheat contracts.
This past week has been relatively dry in the central U.S., but a fresh round of rains could hit the Plains and Midwest between Saturday and Tuesday, per the latest 72-hour cumulative precipitation map from NOAA. The agency’s 8-to-14-day outlook predicts seasonally dry weather for the Plains and near-normal precipitation for the Midwest between October 28 and November 3. Seasonally warm weather is also likely during this time.
Has rainy weather slowed down your fieldwork recently, or is harvest progressing as planned? Click this link to take the survey and share updates about your farm’s crop development. Farm Futures grain market analyst Jacqueline Holland regularly reviews and uploads results to the FFTF Google MyMap, so farmers can keep current with peer anecdotes from around the country.
On Wall St., the Dow jumped 624 points higher in afternoon trading to 30,958 on expectations that the Federal Reserve’s interest rate hikes may slow down moving forward. Investors were less enthusiastic about a few tepid corporate earnings reports that were released earlier today. Energy futures moved higher, with crude oil up 0.5% this afternoon to $84 per barrel. Diesel climbed 2.5%, with gasoline up around 0.25%. The U.S. Dollar softened moderately.
On Thursday, commodity funds were net buyers of corn (+4,500), soybeans (+6,500), soymeal (+4,500) and CBOT wheat (+2,500) contracts but were net sellers of soyoil (-1,000).
Corn
Corn prices dipped slightly lower on some light technical selling partly based on seasonal harvest pressure. However, strength from equities and a weakening U.S. Dollar kept losses to a minimum. December and March futures each eased half a penny lower to close at $6.8350 and $6.8950, respectively.
Corn basis bids were mostly steady to firm across the central U.S. after rising 3 to 15 cents higher at four Midwestern locations on Friday. An Iowa processor bucked the overall trend after tracking 10 cents lower today.
What separates the 2022 commodity price rally from the rise (and subsequent fall) in 2012-13? “The major difference between this year and 2012 is that the price rally in 2012 was a mostly supply rally, while the 2022 rally is mostly a demand rally,” points out grain market analyst Roger Wright. Supply rallies tend to be short-lived because growing seasons are short, he notes, while demand rallies can have longer shelf life. Wright expands on these ideas and more in the latest Ag Marketing IQ blog – click here to learn more.
France’s 2022 corn harvest is running nearly a month (28 days) ahead of last year’s pace and production could fall to a three-decade low after suffering through months of overly hot, dry weather. Harvest progress is at 92% through October 17, up from 83% the prior week and well ahead of 2021’s pace of 30%.
Preliminary volume estimates were for 147,835 contracts, falling moderately below Thursday’s final count of 233,054.
Soybeans
Soybean prices wobbled but overcame moderate overnight losses and managed to stay upright by the close, taking on small gains after some net technical buying on Friday. Spillover support from soymeal (+1.0%) and soyoil (+1.5%) proved helpful. November and January futures each picked up 1.75 cents to reach $13.9325 and $14.0175, respectively.
Soybean basis bids were steady to lightly firm across the central U.S. after picking up a penny at an Ohio elevator and an Indiana processor on Friday.
The latest readings from Creighton University’s Rural Mainstreet Index were down for the fifth consecutive month. “The Rural Mainstreet economy is now experiencing a downturn in economic activity,” according to Ernie Gross, Chair in Regional Economics at Creighton University. “Almost one in four bankers, or 23.1%, reported that the economy was already in a recession.” The rest of the bankers responding to the survey expect a recession to begin in 2023, Gross added. Click here to learn more.
If you haven’t ventured to FarmFutures.com in a few days, our Friday feature “7 ag stories you might have missed” is an easy way to quickly catch up on the ag industry’s top headlines. The latest batch of content includes an update on worryingly low Mississippi River water levels, information on ARC and PLC enrollment, and more. Click here to get started.
Preliminary volume estimates were for 185,249 contracts, trending moderately below Thursday’s final count of 222,577.
Wheat
Wheat prices were mixed but mostly lower after some net technical selling on Friday. Losses were minimized after the U.S. Dollar trended lower and fresh concerns emerged regarding Black Sea exports (more on that below). December Chicago SRW futures eased 1.25 cents to $8.48, December Kansas City HRW futures dropped 3 cents to $9.4675, and December MGEX spring wheat futures added 1.5 cents to $9.64.
Ukraine accused Russia today of intentionally delaying the loading of 150 ships with grain that are hoping to soon depart from the country’s Black Sea ports. In a video address, President Volodymyr Zelenskiy indicated that the delay is affecting the shipment of 3 million metric tons of grain. Ukraine is among the world’s top exporters of both wheat and corn.
French soft wheat plantings for the 2022/23 season are 46% complete through October 17, up from 21% a week ago and ten points above last year’s pace of 36% so far, according to French farm office FranceAgriMer. France is Europe’s top grain producer.
Turkey made provisional purchases of milling wheat totaling 17.3 million bushels in an international tender that closed earlier today. The grain can be sourced from optional origins, with Russia expected to emerge as a major supplier. Shipment will range between November 1 and December 13.
Thailand issued an international tender to purchase as much as 6.6 million bushels of animal feed wheat from optional origins that closes today. The grain is comprised of three consignments that would be for shipment in February, March and April.
Preliminary volume estimates were for 51,608 CBOT contracts, sliding moderately below Thursday’s final count of 72,707.
Settlement Prices for Key Commodities
High
Low
Last
Change
Corn $/bushel
22-Dec
688
677.75
684.25
-0.5
23-Mar
693.75
684
690.5
-0.5
Soybeans
22-Nov
1398.5
1375.5
1395.5
1.75
23-Jan
1407.25
1383.75
1404.5
1.75
Soymeal $/ton
23-Jan
410.8
402.1
410.3
3.4
Soyoil cents/lb
23-Jan
69.24
67.12
68.97
0.98
Wheat $/bushel
22-Dec
863
833
850.75
-1.25
23-Mar
881
852
869.5
-0.75
KC Wheat
22-Dec
959.5
929.5
948.25
-3
23-Mar
957.75
928.25
946.5
-2
MPLS Wheat
22-Dec
971.5
949
961.5
1.5
23-Mar
978.75
956
968
-0.25
Live Cattle cents/lb
22-Oct
150.5
149.575
150.3
0.525
Feeder Cattle cents/lb
22-Nov
179.325
177.4
178.175
0.625
Lean Hogs cents/lb
23-Feb
90.825
88.675
90.35
1.25
Crude Oil $/barrel
*Energy prices may not represent final settlements
22-Nov
85.9
83.15
84.78
0.27
Diesel
22-Nov
3.8714
3.6608
3.8163
0.0595
Unleaded Gasoline $/gallon
22-Nov
2.6806
2.6218
2.6421
-0.0057
Natural Gas
22-Dec
5.851
5.393
5.455
-0.383
U.S. Dollar Index
22-Dec
113.835
111.575
111.935
-0.883
Gold $/ounce
22-Nov
1653
1618.1
1634.1
3.3
Copper
22-Oct
3.5145
3.46
3.513
0.062
Fertilizer Swaps
(as of 10/14)
DAP Tampa-index
695.0
-17.5
DAP-New Orleans
799.2
-16.53
Urea-New Orleans
666.9
-8.27
Urea-Middle East
757.5
27.5
Urea-Black Sea
585.0
35
UAN (32%) New Orleans
617.3
0
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