Afternoon report: Corn prices also firm in Friday’s session, with soybeans drifting lower
Grains were mixed but mostly higher on Friday amid some uneven technical maneuvering as traders squared positions ahead of the weekend. Wheat prices fared the best, with some contracts rising as much as 1.5% higher. Corn was also firm, picking up modest gains of around 0.25%. Soybeans failed to follow suit, trending almost 0.4% lower by the close.
Most areas north of I-70 will see at least some measurable moisture between Saturday and Tuesday, with some places set to gather as much as 1″ or more during this time, per the latest 72-hour cumulative precipitation map from NOAA. The agency’s new 8-to-14-day outlook predicts seasonally dry conditions for most of the Corn Belt between September 23 and September 29, with warmer-than-normal conditions likely for the Plains, Mid-South and Southeast during that time.
On Wall St., the Dow sank another 225 points in afternoon trading to 30,735 as a dismal week draws to a close. Investors remain skittish about high inflation and the Federal Reserve’s aggressive plan to combat that by raising interest rates. Energy futures were mixed. Crude oil tested 0.25% gains his afternoon, staying above $85 per barrel. Diesel dropped 0.75% while gasoline was near-even. The U.S. Dollar firmed slightly.
On Thursday, commodity funds were net buyers of soymeal (+2,500) contracts but were net sellers of corn (-3,500), soybeans (-3,000), soyoil (-2,000) and CBOT wheat (-14,500).
Corn
Corn prices faced small overnight losses heading into Friday’s session but were able to push back into the green after some net technical buying today. December futures picked up 1.75 cents to $6.7925, while March futures added 2 cents to $6.8475.
Corn basis bids were mostly steady to weak across the central U.S. after trending 3 to 35 cents lower at seven Midwestern locations on Friday. An Illinois river terminal bucked the overall trend after inching 2 cents higher today.
European grain trade association Coceral reported today that it is slicing its projection for EU corn production from 2.598 billion bushels in May down to 2.043 billion bushels after several key growing countries were hurt by long stretches of hot, dry weather throughout the summer. Coceral made “significant downward revisions” in France, Germany, Italy, Hungary and Romania. If realized, this would be a 15-year low and 26% below 2021’s output of 2.764 billion bushels.
Consultancy Strategie Grains is a bit more bullish on 2022 EU corn production, meantime, after offering its latest projection of 2.083 billion bushels. Its estimates have also fallen more than 20% over the past several months.
Drought is also creating problems in Argentina, the world’s third-largest corn exporter. Farmers are facing the worst drought conditions in nearly 30 years. Many farmers plan to delay plantings this season, and the Rosario grains exchange may cut its acreage forecast from its current estimate of 20.262 million acres.
Crop ratings finally stabilized in France after declining for the prior nine consecutive weeks, according to farm office FranceAgriMer, which estimates that 43% of the crop is rated in good-to-excellent condition through September 12. That’s far below year-ago results of 89%, however. Harvest moved to 14% complete through Monday versus 5% the week before that.
Preliminary volume estimates were for 177,160 contracts, moving ahead of Thursday’s final count of 161,829.
Soybeans
Soybean prices entered Friday’s session with overnight losses of around 6 to 9 cents and weren’t able to make up much ground after a choppy session today. November and January futures each closed 5.5 cents lower, to $14.46 and $14.5250, respectively.
Soybean basis bids fell 10 to 30 cents lower at three Midwestern processors and dropped 17 cents at an Ohio elevator while holding steady elsewhere across the central U.S. on Friday.
How are your crops looking at the moment? Have you started harvest yet? Click this link to take the survey and share updates about your farm’s crop development. Farm Futures grain market analyst Jacqueline Holland regularly reviews and uploads results to the FFTF Google MyMap, so farmers can peer anecdotes from around the country.
Amid rising food costs, pressure is mounting for the Senate to take up the House of Representative’s Farm Workforce Modernization Act, which the House has already passed twice (most recently in March 2021). Action in the Senate has stalled out so far, however. “We’re in a crisis and if we want Americans to be able to eat affordable, safe food and for our nation to be able to feed itself independently and not be forced to rely on imports, we need Senators Crapo and Bennet to file their Senate bill, building on the work the House has already done passing the Farm Workforce Modernization Act twice,” according to American Business Immigration Coalition Action’s executive director, Rebecca Shi. Click here to learn more.
Preliminary volume estimates were for 132,332 contracts, shifting moderately below Thursday’s final count of 161,068.
Wheat
Wheat prices moved higher again on Friday on another round of technical buying that lifted some contracts as much as 1.5% higher. Traders assessed the latest lower production estimates in Europe as well as ongoing geopolitical unrest in the Black Sea region. December Chicago SRW futures rose 13.5 cents to $8.5850, December Kansas City HRW futures gained 9.75 cents to $9.36, and December MGEX spring wheat futures added 5.5 cents to $9.3425.
Russian President Vladimir Putin is still complaining that the bulk of Ukraine’s Black Sea shipments have not gone to the “poorest countries” since a deal was brokered to safely transport grain at the beginning of August. Putin and Turkey’s Erdogan met earlier to discuss the deal and whether its terms should be altered.
Saudi Arabia issued an international tender to purchase 19.7 million bushels of wheat from optional origins, which is in alignment with its plan to maintain strategic stocks and fulfill domestic milling needs. The grain is for delivery between November and February.
If you haven’t ventured to FarmFutures.com in a few days, our Friday feature “7 ag stories you might have missed” is an easy way to quickly catch up on the industry’s top headlines. The latest batch of content includes details on $3.5 billion in new USDA funding for climate-smart projects, a look at the latest farmland values and cash rent plans and more. Click here to get started.
Preliminary volume estimates were for 67,681 CBOT contracts, easing 13% below Thursday’s final count of 78,169.
Settlement Prices for Key Commodities
High
Low
Last
Change
Corn $/bushel
22-Dec
680.5
667.5
677.25
1.75
23-Mar
686.25
673.25
683
2
Soybeans
22-Nov
1455
1433.75
1448.5
-5.5
23-Jan
1461.75
1441
1455.25
-5.5
Soymeal $/ton
22-Dec
429
417.5
421.7
-7
Soyoil cents/lb
22-Dec
66.48
64.05
65.96
1.75
Wheat $/bushel
22-Dec
866.5
830.75
859.75
13.5
23-Mar
880.75
846.5
874.75
13
KC Wheat
22-Dec
944.25
910.25
935.25
9.75
23-Mar
942
910
934.25
8.75
MPLS Wheat
22-Dec
946.25
916
938.75
5.5
23-Mar
953.75
923.5
945.5
6
Live Cattle cents/lb
22-Oct
145.65
145.1
145.575
-0.05
Feeder Cattle cents/lb
22-Oct
181.6
179.575
181.05
0.125
Lean Hogs cents/lb
22-Dec
88.225
86.5
88.025
0.375
Crude Oil $/barrel
*Energy prices may not represent final settlements
22-Oct
86.59
84.27
85.36
0.26
Diesel
22-Oct
3.2699
3.1573
3.1838
-0.0214
Unleaded Gasoline $/gallon
22-Oct
2.445
2.375
2.4191
-0.0096
Natural Gas
22-Nov
8.367
7.766
7.846
-0.526
U.S. Dollar Index
22-Sep
110.26
109.45
109.71
-0.001
Gold $/ounce
22-Oct
1679.2
1651.9
1671
5.6
Copper
22-Sep
3.568
3.47
3.562
0.0385
Fertilizer Swaps
(as of 09/16)
DAP Tampa-index
765.0
-52.5
DAP-New Orleans
837.8
-5.51
Urea-New Orleans
734.1
25.9
Urea-Middle East
865.0
-20
Urea-Black Sea
585.0
35
UAN (32%) New Orleans
556.7
16.53
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