Afternoon report: Corn and soybeans also moved higher in Tuesday’s session
In overnight trading, only soybean prices were in the green. But by the close, corn and wheat joined the fun following a shift to technical buying. Corn prices trended 0.75% higher, while soybeans surged 2% higher on extended export optimism. Wheat gains were variable, mostly ranging between 0.5% and 1.75%.
Some rains are expected to return later this week, particularly in a band stretching from Texas to Wisconsin. Some areas could see another 1″ or more fall between Wednesday and Saturday, per the latest 72-hour cumulative precipitation map from NOAA. The agency’s new 8-to-14-day outlook predicts more seasonally wet weather for the upper Midwest and Northern Plains between November 8 and November 14, with cooler-than-normal conditions probable for most of the Corn Belt during this time.
On Wall St., the Dow shifted 93 points lower in afternoon trading to 32,639 as investors anxiously await the next economic signals from the Federal Reserve when it meets later this week. Energy futures were mixed but mostly higher. Gasoline rose 2.25% this afternoon to $88 per barrel. Gasoline firmed 2.5%, while diesel dropped more than 0.75%. The U.S. Dollar softened slightly.
On Monday, commodity funds were net buyers of all major grain contracts, including corn (+7,000), soybeans (+8,500), soymeal (+2,000), soyoil (+5,000) and CBOT wheat (+20,000).
Corn
Corn prices shook off modest overnight losses to close with gains of around 0.75% amid a round of technical buying that was partly spurred by spillover strength from soybeans and wheat. December futures added 5.25 cents to $6.9675, with March futures up 4.75 cents to $7.0150.
Corn basis bids were steady to mixed across the central U.S. on Tuesday after rising as much as 15 cents higher at an Iowa processor and falling as much as 7 cents lower at an Illinois ethanol plant today.
In Monday’s USDA crop progress report, the agency noted corn harvest moved from 61% complete a week ago up to 76% complete through October 30. That puts the 2022 crop ahead of both last year’s pace of 73% and the prior five-year average of 64%.
It’s definitely time to start planning out your 2023 goals, and Darren Frye, CEO of Water Street Solutions, offers three steps to get that process started. First, get 2022 financial data as solidified as possible. Second, start creating good projections for 2023. And finally, set up strong business and marketing plans. Frye goes into greater detail in his latest Finance First column – click here to learn more.
Brazilian governmental data showed that the country’s corn exports jumped to 283.4 million bushels in October, which was a year-over-year increase of 300%.
South Korea rejected all offers in its international tender to purchase 2.3 million bushels of corn (along with 8,000 metric tons of soymeal) from South America that closed earlier today. Several offers were submitted, but prices were regarded as too high. The grain would have been for arrival in early February.
Meantime, another South Korean buyer purchased 2.6 million bushels of feed corn, likely sourced from South America and South Africa, in a private deal that closed late last week. That grain is for arrival around February 5.
Preliminary volume estimates were for 226,174 contracts, falling significantly below Monday’s final count of 416,781.
Soybeans
Soybean prices jumped 2% higher on a round of technical buying largely triggered by export optimism, with spillover strength from other grains lending some additional support. November futures rose 28.75 cents to $14.3575, with January futures up 26.5 cents to $14.46.
Soybean basis bids were mostly steady across the central U.S. on Tuesday but did jump 20 to 27 cents higher at two interior river terminals today.
On Monday afternoon, USDA reported that soybean harvest progress moved from 80% a week ago up to 88% through October 30. That puts this year’s progress well above 2021’s pace and the prior five-year average, which are both at 80%.
Ahead of the next monthly USDA soybean crushing report, analysts are expecting the agency to show September’s crush at 167.6 million bushels. That would be down from 175.0 million bushels in August but ahead of year-ago results of 164.1 million bushels, if realized. Soyoil stocks could fall to a 23-month low of 2.000 billion pounds.
Brazil just completed its latest presidential election, ousting incumbent Jair Bolsonaro in favor of newcomer Luiz Inacio by a narrow margin. Ensuing protests have led to some road blockades, including the main access road to the country’s Paranagua port. These protests were prompted by truckers, who were one of Bolsonaro’s biggest constituencies. Time will tell whether this will prove a major disruption for grain exports or not. On a related note, Brazilian soybean exports in October rose moderately higher year-over-year, with a total of 149.2 million bushels.
Preliminary volume estimates were for 210,166 contracts, rising slightly above Monday’s final count of 182,819.
Wheat
Wheat prices continued to push higher after a round of technical buying handed out variable results that ranged between 0.5% and 1.75%. Traders continue to closely monitor the ongoing situation in Ukraine, where a shipping deal has fallen apart for now. December Chicago SRW futures rose 16.25 cents to $8.9850, December Kansas City HRW futures added 7.75 cents to $9.8650, and December MGEX spring wheat futures picked up 4.75 cents to $9.86.
USDA reported yesterday that 87% of the 2022/23 winter wheat crop has been planted through October 30, up from 79% the prior week. And 62% is now emerged, versus 49% a week ago. USDA also released its first quality ratings, which were pretty dismal – only 28% is rated in good-to-excellent condition so far.
Turkey’s President Tayyip Erdogon connected with Russian President Vladimir Putin via phone today in an effort to rekindle negotiations for Ukraine to safely ship grain and other goods out of its Black Sea ports. Russia walked away from the deal over the weekend, claiming its own ships had been attacked.
In the wake of severe flooding that could ultimately create a food security crisis, Pakistan announced plans to import around 11 million bushels of wheat from Russia. This also marks the first time Pakistan has conducted a state-level import deal with Russia in three years.
South Korea purchased 2.3 million bushels of animal feed wheat, likely sourced from the United States, in an international tender that closed earlier today. The grain is for arrival in late December.
Preliminary volume estimates were for 116,890 CBOT contracts, shifting moderately below Monday’s final count of 181,422.
Settlement Prices for Key Commodities
High
Low
Last
Change
Corn $/bushel
22-Dec
698.5
687.25
697.75
5.25
23-Mar
703
692.5
702.5
4.75
Soybeans
22-Nov
1436.5
1403.75
1435.75
28.75
23-Jan
1449
1414.25
1447.75
26.5
Soymeal $/ton
23-Jan
421.8
416
417.8
-1.5
Soyoil cents/lb
23-Jan
71.89
70.38
71.06
0.38
Wheat $/bushel
22-Dec
904
867.75
902.5
16.25
23-Mar
920.75
886
919
16
KC Wheat
22-Dec
991
960.75
990
7.75
23-Mar
987.5
958
986.5
9
MPLS Wheat
22-Dec
991
965.25
989.75
4.75
23-Mar
1000.5
974
999.25
5.75
Live Cattle cents/lb
22-Oct
152.675
151.9
151.95
-0.525
Feeder Cattle cents/lb
23-Jan
180.3
178.075
178.15
-1.3
Lean Hogs cents/lb
23-Feb
89.35
88.15
88.425
-0.025
Crude Oil $/barrel
*Energy prices may not represent final settlements
22-Dec
89.45
85.92
88.46
1.93
Diesel
22-Nov
3.7728
3.614
3.6241
-0.05
Unleaded Gasoline $/gallon
22-Nov
2.6165
2.5093
2.5929
0.0672
Natural Gas
23-Jan
6.565
6.011
6.145
-0.462
U.S. Dollar Index
22-Dec
111.655
110.565
111.385
-0.035
Gold $/ounce
22-Dec
1660.3
1633.6
1647.9
12
Copper
22-Nov
3.523
3.4795
3.5055
0.092
Fertilizer Swaps
(as of 10/28)
DAP Tampa-index
700.0
0
DAP-New Orleans
790.9
-11.02
Urea-New Orleans
611.8
-38.58
Urea-Middle East
647.5
-55
Urea-Black Sea
585.0
35
UAN (32%) New Orleans
614.5
-2.76
Get our top content delivered right to your inbox. Subscribe to our morning and afternoon newsletters!
