Morning report: Corn and soy also dip lower as extended forecasts point to favorable planting conditions. (Comments are updated by 7:30 a.m. Central Time.)
Corn down 7-9 cents
Soybeans down 7-12 cents; Soymeal down $1.90/ton; Soyoil down $1.38/lb
Chicago wheat down 7-8 cents; Kansas City wheat down 10-11 cents; Minneapolis wheat down 7 cents
*Prices as of 7:05am CDT.
Feedback from the Field is back! Our Feedback from the Field series is live for the 2022 season! Just click this link to take the survey and share updates about your farm’s spring progress. I review and upload results daily to the FFTF Google MyMap, so farmers can see others’ responses from across the country – or even across the county!
Crop Progress report out today
The cool weather continues across the Heartland as rains continue to douse the Midwest and drought persists in the Plains. But there was a small window for planting activity last week that may breathe some life into today’s Crop Progress report figures released from USDA at 3pm CDT this afternoon.
Growers in the Feedback from the Field series finally reported some planting progress last week after four consecutive weeks of reports of absolutely no planting activity across the Upper Midwest. And while growers still face an uphill battle in terms of racing against the clock to plant crops within the optimal yield window this year, we are still about two weeks away before we start to manifest those concerns.
With the new month, a forecast shift is in the cards. NOAA’s most recent 6-to-10-day and 8-to-14-day outlooks released this morning show warming temperatures in the Northern Plains and Eastern Corn Belt plus an above average chance of precipitation for drought-stressed regions of the Plains (love that forecast for my poor lawn!).
Granted, areas of the Northern Plains likely need further precipitation, so expect to see some continued planting delays there. But near average to below average probabilities of precipitation in the Eastern Corn Belt could drive some fast planting speeds over the next couple weeks, just in perfect time to beat the yield window closed.
The next question on farmers minds regarding this forecast should be – will this forecast provide enough timely moisture for winter wheat crops? Crops stretching from Montana to Texas showed further signs of distress in last week’s Crop Progress report following three consecutive weeks of lower-trending condition ratings.
As of last week, only 27% of U.S. winter wheat crops were rated in good to excellent condition. The year prior, that value stood at 49% good to excellent. Heading progress was at 11% last week, about 8 points firmly behind the five-year average as persistent and widespread dryness continues to erode yield potential.
The forecasted rains will be a lifeline for the U.S. winter wheat crop this year. But will it be too late to completely avoid a yield shortfall?
Corn
Thailand is considering axing import restrictions on corn and wheat feed shipments as global supplies continue to tighten. But the news wasn’t enough to save the corn and wheat complexes from trading at losses overnight.
Clearer forecasts on the way for U.S. corn and soybean growers gave way to $0.08-$0.10/bushel losses in the corn market this morning. The forecasts will give growers an opportunity to be mostly planted in the ideal yield window before May 15 and should prevent further corn acres from being lost to soybeans this year.
Soybeans
Soybeans traded $0.07-$0.12/bushel lower this morning on hopes for favorable planting progress in the U.S. in the coming days as well as a larger than expected sunflower crop in the European Union this spring, easing some of the global supply concerns that have plagued the market over the past two months since Russia’s unprovoked military invasion into Ukraine.
USDA releases monthly soy crush volumes for March 2022 today. Pre-report analyst estimates peg today’s value between 191.0 million to 194.5 million bushels with an average guess of 192.8 million bushels crushed in March 2022.
If the average value is realized, that total would be 4.6 million bushels higher than the February 2022 crush, with the added help of the three extra production days naturally allowed to March versus February.
Despite surging soybean prices following Russia’s invasion into Ukraine, end user demand for soyoil remains strong as global supplies further constrict keeping crushers well-incentivized to continue expanding production capabilities.
If a 192.8-million-bushel crush is realized, that would be a new record high for March monthly crush rates, surpassing 2020’s previous high of 192.1 million bushels. At any rate, it will likely be a bullish indicator for soybean usage in terms of potential price movement in today’s markets.
Wheat
Much-needed rains across the Plains overnight are sure to help boost declining winter wheat conditions (this fact is self-verified – it rained all night in Colorado and my lawn is so happy!). Wheat futures stumbled $0.07-$0.11/bushel lower on the news.
“The trigger for the fall seems to have been the prospect of some much-needed rainfall in very dry Hard Red Winter (HRW) wheat regions,” Tobin Gorey, director of agricultural strategy at the Commonwealth Bank of Australia, told Reuters overnight.
“The rainfall up until Sunday morning was not impressive, sprinkles in south west Nebraska are not relief. The rainfall though might have accelerated through Sunday. And the rainfall opportunity extends into this week.”
Weather
Beneficial rains in the Southern and Central Plains today will shift into the Corn Belt by for most of the day tomorrow, according to NOAA’s short-range forecasts. Plus, another system developing in the Central Rockies could push more showers into the Plains on Wednesday (“Yay!” says my yard).
While it will likely cause more planting headaches this week, the showers could help drought-stressed regions of the country replenish depleted soil moisture levels. As I mentioned earlier in this article, it could also pave the way for clearer skies and rapid planting progress by this weekend.
Financials
S&P 500 futures edged 2.25 points (0.05%) lower overnight to $4,125.25 as markets remain cautious while continuing to evaluate risks from China’s COVID lockdown measures, hawkish Federal Reserve stances on interest rate hikes (FOMC meeting begins tomorrow, folks!), and continued high inflation. Oh yeah – and the Russian war in Ukraine.
The dollar is currently resting at its highest peak since 2020 with much of its strength coming from traders fearing steep central bank interest rate increases around the world this week, not just in the U.S.
Also worth a read on our website, FarmFutures.com
Roger Wright shares the benefits of hedging with puts to avoid margin calls.
AgMarket.Net’s Betsy Jibben shares the latest on planting progress in Ukraine, where even though planting activity continues, growers face countless challenges including storage safety, fuel and finance availability, and access to export markets.
Indiana grower Kyle Stackhouse is not taking the spring rain delays lying down. Stackhouse’s farm is staying busy spraying cover crops and laying irrigation lines while waiting for better planting weather.
The EPA was asked to give eight states a permanent waiver to allow for year-round use of E15 ethanol blends.
Will the cattle market setback continue? Naomi Blohm points out that favorable deferred futures contract pricing suggests that higher prices are on the way.
My first Feedback from the Field column of the season! Spoiler alert – little to no planting progress has been made in the Corn Belt and winter wheat is looking rough.
Morning Ag Commodity Prices – 5/2/2022
Contract
Units
High
Low
Last
Net Change
% Change
MAY ’22 CORN
$ / BSH
8.1175
8.075
8.1075
-0.075
-0.92%
JUL ’22 CORN
$ / BSH
8.085
8.0025
8.02
-0.115
-1.41%
SEP ’22 CORN
$ / BSH
7.615
7.5575
7.575
-0.105
-1.37%
DEC ’22 CORN
$ / BSH
7.45
7.395
7.42
-0.0925
-1.23%
MAR ’23 CORN
$ / BSH
7.4875
7.435
7.455
-0.095
-1.26%
MAY ’23 CORN
$ / BSH
7.495
7.445
7.4675
-0.0925
-1.22%
JUL ’23 CORN
$ / BSH
7.46
7.41
7.435
-0.0925
-1.23%
MAY ’22 SOYBEANS
$ / BSH
17.1225
16.935
16.995
-0.0875
-0.51%
JUL ’22 SOYBEANS
$ / BSH
16.8875
16.6425
16.725
-0.1225
-0.73%
AUG ’22 SOYBEANS
$ / BSH
16.395
16.1625
16.2375
-0.12
-0.73%
SEP ’22 SOYBEANS
$ / BSH
15.6175
15.4025
15.475
-0.1075
-0.69%
NOV ’22 SOYBEANS
$ / BSH
15.195
14.9825
15.0575
-0.09
-0.59%
JAN ’23 SOYBEANS
$ / BSH
15.19
15
15.0675
-0.0875
-0.58%
MAR ’23 SOYBEANS
$ / BSH
15.0075
14.8525
14.915
-0.0725
-0.48%
MAY ’23 SOYBEANS
$ / BSH
14.985
14.835
14.9025
-0.0675
-0.45%
JUL ’23 SOYBEANS
$ / BSH
14.9775
14.8525
14.895
-0.0775
-0.52%
MAY ’22 SOYBEAN OIL
$ / LB
87.79
85.01
87.79
-1.38
-1.55%
JUL ’22 SOYBEAN OIL
$ / LB
84.53
82.23
82.5
-1.68
-2.00%
MAY ’22 SOY MEAL
$ / TON
441.7
438.5
438.6
-1.9
-0.43%
JUL ’22 SOY MEAL
$ / TON
434
426
429.9
-2.4
-0.56%
AUG ’22 SOY MEAL
$ / TON
426.7
420
423.9
-0.9
-0.21%
SEP ’22 SOY MEAL
$ / TON
417.3
411.5
413.8
-1.4
-0.34%
OCT ’22 SOY MEAL
$ / TON
408.4
403
405.6
0.3
0.07%
MAY ’22 Chicago SRW
$ / BSH
10.41
10.2925
10.34
-0.0975
-0.93%
JUL ’22 Chicago SRW
$ / BSH
10.5475
10.3425
10.4325
-0.125
-1.18%
SEP ’22 Chicago SRW
$ / BSH
10.5725
10.3725
10.4725
-0.11
-1.04%
DEC ’22 Chicago SRW
$ / BSH
10.575
10.3775
10.48
-0.1025
-0.97%
MAR ’23 Chicago SRW
$ / BSH
10.5725
10.3975
10.475
-0.1
-0.95%
MAY ’22 Kansas City HRW
$ / BSH
10.8425
10.8425
10.8425
-0.1
-0.91%
JUL ’22 Kansas City HRW
$ / BSH
11.07
10.9
10.9125
-0.145
-1.31%
SEP ’22 Kansas City HRW
$ / BSH
11.1
10.9375
10.9475
-0.1425
-1.28%
DEC ’22 Kansas City HRW
$ / BSH
11.1125
10.95
10.975
-0.1375
-1.24%
MAR ’23 Kansas City HRW
$ / BSH
11.06
10.9575
10.96
-0.125
-1.13%
MAY ’22 MLPS Spring Wheat
$ / BSH
11.465
#N/A
11.6125
0
0.00%
JUL ’22 MLPS Spring Wheat
$ / BSH
11.73
11.575
11.595
-0.065
-0.56%
SEP ’22 MLPS Spring Wheat
$ / BSH
11.595
11.4425
11.4675
-0.065
-0.56%
DEC ’22 MLPS Spring Wheat
$ / BSH
11.555
11.4175
11.495
0.0025
0.02%
MAR ’23 MLPS Spring Wheat
$ / BSH
11.4825
11.4225
11.4575
0.0075
0.07%
JUN ’21 ICE Dollar Index
$
103.56
103.12
103.455
0.492
0.48%
JU ’21 Light Crude
$ / BBL
105.16
100.28
100.45
-4.24
-4.05%
JU ’21 Light Crude
$ / BBL
103.4
98.87
98.91
-4.03
-3.91%
JUN ’22 ULS Diesel
$ /U GAL
4.0817
3.9444
3.9546
-0.0626
-1.56%
JUL ’22 ULS Diesel
$ /U GAL
3.7342
3.6207
3.6311
-0.0664
-1.80%
JUN ’22 Gasoline
$ /U GAL
3.4663
3.3466
3.3505
-0.0919
-2.67%
JUL ’22 Gasoline
$ /U GAL
3.396
3.2812
3.2812
-0.0932
-2.76%
MAY ’22 Feeder Cattle
$ / CWT
0
#N/A
156.35
0
0.00%
AUG ’22 Feeder Cattle
$ / CWT
0
#N/A
168.275
0
0.00%
JU ’21 Live Cattle
$ / CWT
0
#N/A
132.65
0
0.00%
AU ’21 Live Cattle
$ / CWT
0
#N/A
135.275
0
0.00%
MAY ’22 Live Hogs
$ / CWT
0
#N/A
100.9
0
0.00%
JUN ’22 Live Hogs
$ / CWT
0
#N/A
106.375
0
0.00%
APR ’22 Class III Milk
$ / CWT
24.37
#N/A
24.39
0
0.00%
MAY ’22 Class III Milk
$ / CWT
24.55
24.33
24.52
0.05
0.20%
JUN ’22 Class III Milk
$ / CWT
24.49
24.4
24.49
0
0.00%
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