Corn down 1-2 cents
Soybeans down 1-3 cents; Soymeal down $1.40/ton; Soyoil up $0.67/lb
Chicago wheat up 8-10 cents; Kansas City wheat up 7-8 cents; Minneapolis wheat up 10-12 cents
*Prices as of 6:55am CDT.
Feedback from the Field updates! How is harvest progressing on your farm this fall?! Click this link to take the survey and share updates about your farm’s harvest progress. I review and upload results daily to the FFTF Google MyMap, so farmers can see others’ responses from across the country – or even across the county!
Corn
Corn prices traded flat to $0.01-$0.02/bushel lower overnight as harvest continues to advance across the country. Crop Progress data released from USDA today will provide more clear insights on corn harvest progress, which has lagged behind analyst estimates the past two weeks.
Food processors and ethanol plants are about the only locations around the Midwest offering any hopes of premium basis offerings for freshly harvested corn as of last Friday. And even that isn’t a guarantee of a strong cash bid – basis weakened at an Indiana ethanol plant and on the Mississippi River at Davenport on Friday.
While a Cedar Rapids, Iowa food processor raised its cash offering by $0.25/bushel to now offer a $0.12/bushel premium to December 2022 corn futures, it was one of the few end users across the Eastern Corn Belt offering a strong cash bid as backlogs on the Mississippi River during peak harvest season increases corn supply and demand mismatches across the region.
As a result, grain originators reported few new cash sales booked by farmers on Friday, who are currently focusing on delivering previously agreed upon corn and soybean contracts as they wait for the blocked supplies to trickle through the demand pipeline.
Soybeans
Soybean prices also traded flat to $0.01-$0.04/bushel lower this morning amid favorable harvest weather conditions. Lackluster demand signals are keeping the bulls out of the soybean market this morning as a strong dollar and shipping issues on the Mississippi River limiting international buying interest.
“Soybeans and corn are seeing downward pressure from belief the U.S. harvest is making good progress,” Matt Ammermann, StoneX commodity risk manager, told Reuters overnight.
“The focus in soybean and corn markets is starting to move to the demand side, with the strong dollar hindering U.S. exports and general international demand for U.S. supplies currently looking weak. The crop outlooks in South America are generally positive which could also reduce demand for U.S. supplies.”
The National Oilseed Processors Association (NOPA) releases its monthly soy crush estimates for September 2022 today – the first reading for 2022/23 soybean usage so far in this new marketing year. This report is important because NOPA crush plants handle approximately 95% of all U.S. soybeans destined for crush facilities.
Pre-report trade estimates vary widely, suggesting that the trade is a little in the dark as to what actual processing volumes may actually calculate out to in today’s report. The trade is expecting a range of 152 million – 170.4 million bushels with an average guess of 161.6 million bushels of soybeans processed in September 2022.
If the average volume is realized, that would be a 5% increase from year-ago crush volumes and could potentially be the largest September crush volume on record, surpassing the previous high of 161.5 million bushels recorded in September 2020.
Cash soybean prices in the Eastern Corn Belt continue to trade at a steep discount to November 2022 futures prices as grain flows to the U.S. Gulf remained backlogged amid low river volumes on the Mississippi. The discounts grew at soybean crush and river terminal locations on Friday as harvest volumes continue to pile up across the Midwest.
As previously mentioned with corn cash sales, last Friday’s soybean sales were slow as farmers deliver previously booked contracts and await more profitable pricing opportunities.
Cash soymeal prices held steady today across much of the country on Friday. End user demand is strengthening as peak poultry production season approaches, as evidenced by an uptick in cash bids at an Alabama rail location. Truck and rail terminals in most of the country outside Iowa and Southern Minnesota are trading at a premium to futures, further reflecting strong end user demand as fall temperatures settle across the country.
Wheat
Wheat rallied $0.07-$0.12/bushel higher this morning on global supply worries. No.4 exporter Australia is battling excessive rains, No. 6 exporter Argentina is struggling with smaller acreage and yield forecasts due to drought and worries about No. 1 and 7 exporters Russia and Ukraine, respectively, continues to hang in the balance of an uptick in fighting over the weekend between the two countries.
“Wheat is rising today largely on continued geopolitical risks and concern that the safe shipping channel for Ukraine’s grain exports may not be extended,” Ammermann said to Reuters. “Fighting in Ukraine has intensified and there is a lack of news about progress in talks to prolong the shipping channel which is creating worry.”
Soft red winter wheat spot prices were unchanged in the Eastern Corn Belt, trading at a $0.30/bushel discount to nearby futures prices on Friday. Cash offerings for hard red winter wheat in the Southern Plains were also flat. Dealers reported light sales through the countryside as growers awaited higher prices that would justify taking crops out of storage.
Weather: Fall weather will dominate most of the forecasts across the U.S. Heartland today, according to NOAA’s short-term forecasts. Clear skies are forecast for most of the Midwest for the next 24 hours, except in the Great Lakes region, where up to an inch of rain could fall during that time, delaying harvest progress.
The end of October is now showing better chances for precipitation for the Heartland. NOAA’s 6-10-day outlook is showing warmer temperature probabilities for the Plains, Midwest, Southeast, and East Coast through month end. The forecasts also features an above average probability for rainfall for the Western half of the U.S. as well as up to Lake Michigan, which would greatly benefit newly planted winter wheat crops across the Heartland.
However, the 8-14-day outlook is trending even wetter for the Heartland through the end of October. The extended forecast also indicates warmer than average temperature patterns, though not as likely as in the 6-10-day forecast.
This means that the optimal window for harvest progress may be closing soon for farmers over the next week.
Financials
A Wall Street Journal poll of economists finds that the probability of the U.S. economy slipping into a recession has increased 14 points from a previous survey to a 63% likelihood as inflation remains high and interest rate hikes keep coming, darkening the economic outlook for the 2023 fiscal year.
But even with that gloomy outlook, the S&P 500 was on track to open with a decent gain this morning after rising 1.13% to $3,638.25 during the overnight trading session. Stocks fell after lackluster investment bank earnings reports on Friday added more pessimism to the global macroeconomic environment.
What else I’m reading this morning on our website, FarmFutures.com:
Naomi Blohm dissects eight geopolitical events that could move grain markets in the coming weeks.
Our team’s coverage of the October 2022 WASDE reports!
University of Minnesota ag economist Ed Usset introduces readers to marketing strategies that use call options to capitalize on re-owning crops.
Executive editor Mike Wilson explains how to manage costly nitrogen for high-yielding corn.
Morning Ag Commodity Prices – 10/17/2022
Contract
Units
High
Low
Last
Net Change
% Change
DEC ’22 CORN
$ / BSH
6.9075
6.8525
6.9
0.0025
0.04%
MAR ’23 CORN
$ / BSH
6.9725
6.92
6.9625
0
0.00%
MAY ’23 CORN
$ / BSH
6.975
6.93
6.97
-0.0025
-0.04%
JUL ’23 CORN
$ / BSH
6.9125
6.8675
6.9075
0
0.00%
SEP ’23 CORN
$ / BSH
6.4325
6.4
6.425
-0.005
-0.08%
DEC ’23 CORN
$ / BSH
6.2975
6.26
6.2825
-0.0075
-0.12%
AR2 ’24 CORN
$ / BSH
6.3475
6.335
6.3375
-0.0225
-0.35%
AY2 ’24 CORN
$ / BSH
0
#N/A
6.38
0
0.00%
JUL ’24 CORN
$ / BSH
6.34
#N/A
6.34
0
0.00%
NOV ’22 SOYBEANS
$ / BSH
13.9
13.7625
13.845
0.0075
0.05%
JAN ’23 SOYBEANS
$ / BSH
13.985
13.845
13.925
-0.0025
-0.02%
MAR ’23 SOYBEANS
$ / BSH
14.06
13.925
14.0025
-0.0075
-0.05%
MAY ’23 SOYBEANS
$ / BSH
14.14
14
14.0725
-0.0175
-0.12%
JUL ’23 SOYBEANS
$ / BSH
14.175
14.04
14.1075
-0.0225
-0.16%
AUG ’23 SOYBEANS
$ / BSH
14.0325
13.9075
13.96
-0.035
-0.25%
SEP ’23 SOYBEANS
$ / BSH
13.665
13.61
13.665
-0.0175
-0.13%
NOV ’23 SOYBEANS
$ / BSH
13.59
13.4775
13.525
-0.0325
-0.24%
AN2 ’24 SOYBEANS
$ / BSH
13.595
#N/A
13.595
0
0.00%
AR2 ’24 SOYBEANS
$ / BSH
13.495
13.495
13.495
-0.0525
-0.39%
AY2 ’24 SOYBEANS
$ / BSH
12.82
#N/A
13.535
0
0.00%
DEC ’22 SOYBEAN OIL
$ / LB
66.18
65.15
66.17
0.87
1.33%
JAN ’23 SOYBEAN OIL
$ / LB
64.42
63.5
64.42
0.79
1.24%
DEC ’22 SOY MEAL
$ / TON
413.1
409.5
409.9
-1.2
-0.29%
JAN ’23 SOY MEAL
$ / TON
408.4
405
405.2
-1.6
-0.39%
MAR ’23 SOY MEAL
$ / TON
402
398.2
398.5
-2.2
-0.55%
MAY ’23 SOY MEAL
$ / TON
398.3
394.9
395.2
-2.3
-0.58%
JUL ’23 SOY MEAL
$ / TON
398.4
395
395.4
-2.1
-0.53%
DEC ’22 Chicago SRW
$ / BSH
8.76
8.6
8.735
0.1375
1.60%
MAR ’23 Chicago SRW
$ / BSH
8.9275
8.77
8.9
0.13
1.48%
MAY ’23 Chicago SRW
$ / BSH
8.9975
8.8525
8.9775
0.1225
1.38%
JUL ’23 Chicago SRW
$ / BSH
8.9375
8.805
8.9225
0.115
1.31%
SEP ’23 Chicago SRW
$ / BSH
8.925
8.7725
8.9225
0.1125
1.28%
DEC ’23 Chicago SRW
$ / BSH
8.975
8.865
8.955
0.1025
1.16%
AR2 ’24 Chicago SRW
$ / BSH
8.9375
8.8725
8.9375
0.1125
1.27%
DEC ’22 Kansas City HRW
$ / BSH
9.665
9.535
9.635
0.1125
1.18%
MAR ’23 Kansas City HRW
$ / BSH
9.65
9.52
9.6225
0.115
1.21%
MAY ’23 Kansas City HRW
$ / BSH
9.6175
9.5025
9.6
0.11
1.16%
JUL ’23 Kansas City HRW
$ / BSH
9.51
9.4
9.51
0.11
1.17%
SEP ’23 Kansas City HRW
$ / BSH
9.4525
#N/A
9.355
0
0.00%
DEC ’23 Kansas City HRW
$ / BSH
9.4675
9.4675
9.4675
0.105
1.12%
AR2 ’24 Kansas City HRW
$ / BSH
0
#N/A
9.2875
0
0.00%
DEC ’22 MLPS Spring Wheat
$ / BSH
9.6925
9.565
9.665
0.1225
1.28%
MAR ’23 MLPS Spring Wheat
$ / BSH
9.76
9.65
9.7475
0.1175
1.22%
MAY ’23 MLPS Spring Wheat
$ / BSH
9.8025
9.7275
9.8025
0.1125
1.16%
JUL ’23 MLPS Spring Wheat
$ / BSH
9.7825
#N/A
9.68
0
0.00%
SEP ’23 MLPS Spring Wheat
$ / BSH
9.4075
#N/A
9.3325
0
0.00%
DEC ’23 MLPS Spring Wheat
$ / BSH
9.3675
#N/A
9.3075
0
0.00%
AR2 ’24 MLPS Spring Wheat
$ / BSH
0
#N/A
8.5825
0
0.00%
DEC ’21 ICE Dollar Index
$
113.17
112.57
112.89
-0.312
-0.28%
NO ’21 Light Crude
$ / BBL
86.92
85.18
85.64
0.03
0.04%
DE ’21 Light Crude
$ / BBL
85.94
84.27
84.72
0.07
0.08%
NOV ’22 ULS Diesel
$ /U GAL
4.0699
3.9981
4.03
0.0498
1.25%
DEC ’22 ULS Diesel
$ /U GAL
3.6565
3.6031
3.6452
0.0426
1.18%
NOV ’22 Gasoline
$ /U GAL
2.663
2.6095
2.6291
-0.0018
-0.07%
DEC ’22 Gasoline
$ /U GAL
2.485
2.4365
2.4547
0.0007
0.03%
OCT ’22 Feeder Cattle
$ / CWT
0
#N/A
173.8
0
0.00%
NOV ’22 Feeder Cattle
$ / CWT
0
#N/A
174.775
0
0.00%
CT2 ’21 Live Cattle
$ / CWT
0
#N/A
146.95
0
0.00%
DE ’21 Live Cattle
$ / CWT
0
#N/A
147.775
0
0.00%
DEC ’22 Live Hogs
$ / CWT
0
#N/A
82.25
0
0.00%
FEB ’23 Live Hogs
$ / CWT
0
#N/A
83.425
0
0.00%
OCT ’22 Class III Milk
$ / CWT
21.75
21.74
21.74
-0.03
-0.14%
NOV ’22 Class III Milk
$ / CWT
20.41
20.28
20.31
-0.1
-0.49%
DEC ’22 Class III Milk
$ / CWT
19.7
19.58
19.69
-0.01
-0.05%
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Morning report: Corn, soybeans edge down amid harvest pressure. (Comments are updated by 7:30 a.m. Central Time.)
